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KNOX

CONCLUSIONS
In conclusion, it may be stated that the cratering fallout model developed gives reasonable results for the prediction of the area of the
pattern, the geometry of the dose-rate contours, andthe (H + 1)~hr dose

rate vs. distance along the hot line. The independenttesting of the

model should be extended to include more than the Teapot ESS case
described and the several others cited.
Meteorological improvements in the cratering fallout model could
well include the following items:
1. The prediction of synoptic-scale changes in the normal- and
tangential-shear components.

2. A better understanding of the growth of the debris disks through
horizontal eddy diffusion during their earthwardfall.
3. The prediction of diurnal change of wind at low levels and close

to ground zero.

4, The inclusion of the effects of topography on the evolution of the

horizontal wind field.
5. The effect of terrain-induced circulations on fallout deposition.
6. A better solution to-the cloud-rise problem for cratering detonations.
Before embarking on the development of these meteorological improvementsin fallout predictions, however, one must consider potential
improvements that may come from other areas. Areas of promise are
cratering physics and filtration theory for the vented-fraction problem,
special emplacement for control of vented fraction, and improvement
of nuclear explosives.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The author wishes to acknowledge the interest often expressed by

Gary Higgins and the late A. Vay Sheltonin the work herein reported,
as well as programming support given by Mrs. Leota Barr and Roger
Fulton.

REFERENCES
1. G. H. Higgins, Calculation of Radiation Fields from Fallout, USAEC Report

UCID-4539, University of California Lawrence Radiation Laboratory, Jan. 25,
1963.
2. J. B. Knox, The Prediction of Wind and Fallout, USAEC Report UCID-4662,
we Go

University of California Lawrence Radiation Laboratory, November 1962.

M. M. Williamson, private communication, 1964.
M. D. Nordyke and W. Wray, Cratering and Radioactivity Results from a
Nuclear Cratering Detonation in Basalt, J. Geophys. Res., 69(4): 675-689

(1964).

5. G. H. Higgins, University of California
private communication, 1964.

Lawrence Radiation

Laboratory,

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