CHAPTER 4
PREDICTION OF CRATERS
be BACKGROUND
The,‘date required in regard to any specific megaton explosion
for which a'prediction of the crater is desired are (1) the yield, (2)
the type of soil, and (3) the depth or height of burst. With this information, it:is then appropriate to look at the existing evidence and
measurements. and to develop rational procedures for extrapolation or
interpolation.
;
The craters from explosions high above the surface are significantly different from those formed by lower explosions in that they are
depressions rather’ than excavations. It is believed that such craters
are of relatively minor importance from a military standpoint and they
are, therefore, not considered here.
As mentioned in section. 1.3, it is believed that an attempt to
distinguish true from apparent.‘craters becomes less and less realistic
as larger and larger yields are. considered. In this report, only apperent craters are considered.°;
In previous analyses of.‘etater data, the horizontal dimension
used has sometimes been diameter and,‘sometimes radius, and these values
have been measured sometimes from “Up, to lip and sometimes at the original ground level.
is considered.
In this report);
Sony oes at original ground level
In reviewing the existing data tid a broad point of view and
with the objective of crater prediction for megaton explosions in mind,
the following facts stand out:
—
1.
All the data from which : oils ean be compared
2.
In those situations where more’‘ than one explosion
are contained in experinents involving relatively
small quantities of TNT.
ry
has been fired under presumably identical conditions, an important scatter of the! dimensions of
the resulting craters is apparent.: os
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