already missed by the 100-foot FIDLER grid which estimates 422 and 770
uCi/m? (Figure 8 for the two cells adjacent to GZ. Perhaps there should
.
m,,,m(v
be a specific correction factor 10 /10 (v)

:
to account for a steep decline

in Pu concentration within 100 feet or less of GZ.

Perhaps the lognormal

model itself is not quite adequate at very high levels.
Only a custommade sampling experiment could help solve that question.

The kriging estimates, approximately 400 feet south of GZ, are also
somewhat lower than observed concentrations (Figure 4).
However, some
of these data were not used in the analysis (see Footnote 2), so that a
certain amount of underestimation is expected.

The correction (Formula 16) to the guess field is relatively small in

areas of high activity near GZ and gets large only in areas of low
activity (Figure 10).
The relatively large correction south of GZ
appears to be caused by the several Pu concentrations that were higher
in that area than expected on the basis of prior FIDLER readings.
The
sparseness of data east of GZ may be related to the rather large correction in that area.
In general, however, it may be said that most of the
information about the geographical distribution of the Pu is already
contained in the FIDLER data.
The main role of Pu analysis is to cali-~
brate the regression (Equation 2).
In general,

the confidence interval factors in Figure 15 suggest we are

able to estimate arithmetic mean Pu concentrations over 100- x 100-foot
cells within, roughly, a factor of 2 with approximate 95 percent confidence.

INVENTORY

In Table 3, Part A, we compare estimates of Pu inventory (total amounts
in the top 5 cm of soil) reported by Gilbert (1977) for Area 13 with
those obtained using the kriging results given here in Figure 12.
We
recall that Gilbert (1977) used stratified random sampling, where the
inventory estimate for a given stratum was obtained by multiplying the

average Pu concentration (uCi/m*) for that stratum by the size (m*) of
the stratum.

The kriging estimate of Pu inventory for a given stratum was obtained by
estimating the inventory for each 100- x 100-foot cell and summing these
for all cells within the stratum,
The estimated inventory for a given
cell was computed by multiplying the average (kriging) Pu concentration

(uCi/m*) by the size of the cell (929 m2).

For cells that over lapped

into adjoining strata, the area of the cell lying within the stratum of

interest was approximated by "eyeball."

398

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