COMBINING TWO TYPES OF SURVEY DATA FOR ESTIMATING
GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION OF PLUTONIUM IN AREA 13

P.

Delfiner*

Centre de Geostatistique in Ecole des Mines de Paris
Fontainebleau, France
R.

O.

Gilbert

Battelle Memorial Institute, Pacific Northwest Laboratory
Richland, Washington

ABSTRACT

Estimates of average 239°24%Py concentrations in surface (0-5 cm) soil

lying within 100-foot by 100-foot cells are obtained for the inner fence
region at the Area 13 (Project 57) safety-shot site on the Nevada Test

Site. These estimates and approximate 95% confidence intervals are
obtained using "kriging" in a two-stage procedure. In Stage 1, initial
estimates (a "guess field") of average 239°249py concentrations in

100- x 100-foot cells are obtained by (i) kriging FIDLER 24lam count per

minute (cpm) data to obtain average FIDLER readings in 100- x 100-foot
cells, then (ii) using these initial estimates in an estimated linear

regression equation relating 239’249Pu soil concentrations and 24 1am
FIDLER readings (both in logarithmic scale). The results of Stage 1 are
given in a figure.
In Stage 2, the initial estimates are "corrected" by

performing kriging on the differences between observed plutonium concentrations at random locations and those predicted from the linear log

Pu-log FIDLER regression.

The estimated corrections and the final "cor-

rected" arithmetic mean estimates are included in the report.
Geometric
mean estimates and factors for obtaining confidence intervals are listed.
These factors suggest mean plutonium concentrations are estimated within,
roughly, factors of 2 with approximate 95% confidence.
In general, the kriging estimates seem to be in good agreement with the
observed plutonium data at most locations.
Exceptions to this are

*Work completed under a consulting agreement B~06245-A-L with Battelle
Memorial Institute, Pacific Northwest Laboratories, Richland, WA.

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