Table 2.

.
239-240
:
7
2
Estimated
Pu Concentrations (uNCi/m™” per 5-cm Depth) at Grid
Nodes Near GZ Using Untransformed and Log-Transformed
39-240py
Observations.

Iteration

Untransformed
B72g208

20

252

1

2

3

*

354
629

210
8
-434
92
223
210

618

Log Transformed*

B721409

-

62

11?

1045
2171

291
~=10340

126

664
175
- 156
~

25
100
512

E721600

97

223

135

15
198

-

E721200

68

N936400

«(13
199

N936100

34

1804
272
113

527
660
508

382
564
682

265
239
280

100
109
76

78
84
84

N

41

108

77

186

E721600

77

129

251
963

259
5058

105
128

76
166

79
186
216

18
114
202

58
255
281

77
125
77

248
288
378
53
83
76

418
173
62

475
50
52

941
167
82

373
392
183

15535

- -460
372
638
477

385
644
782

366
219
53

697

1014

18130
1438
236
83

396
469
206

81
108
~ 304
1121
211
140
- lll

288
248
282
18856
67
59
55

65
133
~ 135
-1019
283
785
632

86
189
236
191
375
801
1016

69
194
181
717
295
290
54

9
125
137
859
937
35
44

43
317
277
37793
1459
311
91

78
123
63
96
398
544
237

371
128
- 152

88
254
39
647
217
151
- 382

-

a

1137
96
45

76

93

248
621

1787

135
23
-430

190

N935800

96

172

8721800

738
39
43

104

361
301
278

206

76
77
41
241
381
298
246

A

Tabled values are exp(Zce r), where zor is the estimated plutonium concentration (log scale)
at grid coordinate (XY).
;

The goodness-of-fit of the estimated surface to observed concentrations
at sample collection points can be measured by squaring the linear
correlation coefficient between the observed data and the estimated
surface at the sampling locations.*
This statistic (R2, the percent
of the total variation at sample locations explained by the fitted

surface) is plotted in Figure 12 for each stratum, iteration, and fitting

scale.

The fits are very good for strata 1 and 2 for the untransformed

as well as for the log and antilog fits.

R* tends to decrease for

strata near GZ particularly for the untransformed and antilog scales.
The effect of iterating is to increase R* in all strata for all three

*Pierre Delfiner pointed out (personal communication) that R2 will tend to
be overoptimistic as a measure of goodness of fit since y, and ¥. tend to
be correlated when Vy is obtained using a nearest neighbor approach.

338

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