Description of Iterative Procedure
The first iteration consists of estimating the plutonium concentration
surface at grid nodes using the observed
39°240py data (y., i= 1,2,...,

170).
(The subscript i will run from 1 to 170 throughout this paper.)
This estimated surface is denoted as I; in Figure 2 and is presented in

the Results section as contour and three-dimensional displays.
Backward
double linear interpolation between grid estimates yields the estimates
of plutonium concentrations (¥,,) at sample locations.
Residuals for

en 1 at control (data) doints were obtained by computing R,_, =
- 944
il

In Iteration 2, the procedure of Iteration 1 is applied to the residuals

R; to obtain a new grid matrix Ip (Figure 2). This is the estimated
surface or fit to the residuals from Iteration 1. These residuals were
estimated (%.,) at sample locations using backward double linear inter-

polation from 5 nearest grid node estimates of the residual surface.
The sum 9
is the new estimate of the plutonium concentration
surface ott sanpiZ location i. The new residual is R,, = y.
(F
At each grid node, the estimates from Iteratidds 1 Sad 2 are
a ded together (I; + I2; see Figure 2) to yield a new estimate of the
plutonium concentration surface.
Iteration 3 consists of applying the procedure of Iteration 2 to the

residuals R.,
to obtain a new grid matrix, I3.
I, + Ip + 13 is the
final estimate of the concentration surface, and R,, =
(¥.,
+

9s + 4, 3) is the final residual.
Conceptually, this pracedurétcould be
réseated?many times until all of the "structure" in the residuals has
been removed by fitting.
In this study, we have somewhat arbitrarily chosen to stop after three
iterations.
The question naturally arises, however, as to whether
continued iteration will eventually reduce the residuals to zero so that
the observed and fitted values agree exactly.
This would seem to depend

on the particular gridding algorithm used (GRID or kriging, e.g.), the

data values themselves, and the spatial pattern and density of samples.
A related question concerns whether continued iteration, while possibly
resulting in progressively smaller residuals at sample collection points,
might yield biased and distorted estimates of the concentration surface
at other locations.
As discussed below, there is some evidence of this
happening for the Area 13 data after only three iterations.
This is
apparently related to the absence of data in certain areas near GZ.
This suggests that survey design aspects of these kinds of studies need
to be carefully considered.

326

Select target paragraph3