APPENDIX I
MODEL FOR SIMULATION OF PLUTONIUM INGESTION BY GRAZING CATTLE

Purpose of Program

The purpose of this pocket calculator (Texas Instrument Model 59) program

is to simulate the ingestion of plutonium by cattle grazing randomly in
a fenced area where the vegetation and soils contain known concentrations
of plutonium.
The simulation model equation is
Tou

where

=

Te

+

Toc,

“(1

(1)

Lou. is the plutonium ingestion rate, pCi/day,
1, is the vegetation ingestion rate, g/day,
Ty is the soil ingestion rate, g/day,
Cy is the plutonium concentration in vegetation, pCi/g,
Ce is the plutonium concentration in soil, pCi/g.

and
Input Data

The required input data are the means and standard deviations
(xg + sg) of In(I, y, In(C_), In(I_), and 1n(C_).
To generate synthetic
samples of I
Equation Y is soled repeatedly by substituting random
values, based’on the input data, for the factors on the right side of
Input data for Cc, Is: and C_ may be estimated directly
the equation.
on the basis of samples collected from the specific reference site.
For
this model, the estimated mean and standard deviation of In(I, ) are
obtained from synthetic samples based on

In(I1,) = In(163.5 W°-73/4.5 D)
where

and

(2)

163.5 W273 is the digestible energy (kcal/day) required for

maintenance (no weight gain or loss) of adult cattle,
W is the total live body weight (kg) of the animal,
4.5 kcal/g is the average calorie content of vegetation,
D is the digestibility (dimensionless) of the vegetation
ingested,

To generate synthetic samples of I_, the site-specific estimates of the
arithmetic means and standard devidtions of W and D are required.
The
values for W can be obtained from direct measurements of a reference

herd.

The values for D might be obtained from studies of the nutritional

values of composite vegetation samples from the reference site.
Vegetation and soil, of course, may be sampled directly at the reference site.
The most difficult parameter to estimate may be I_, the soil ingestion
rate.
It seems probable, however, that some sort of estimate could be
obtained by sampling the soil content of fecal materials.

507

Select target paragraph3