Simulations based on arithmetic means and standard deviation and
simulations based on the means and standard deviations of logarithms
both result in estimates of I,
which are quite close to the best empirical estimates available, i.e, ¥Yhe estimate based on the rumen contents
of fistulated steers (Smith, this volume).

The good agreement between these almost independent estimates of Ip
tends to confirm the usefulness of the simulation model, Equations Y and
2, and the basic assumption that grazing can be represented as a random
process.
It does not, however, confirm the structure of the model.
It
could be, for example, the the soil ingestion rate is actually much
lower than indicated, by this study, on the basis of but three samples.
Indeed, the soil, or sediment, recovered from the gastrointestinal

tracts of cattle may have been ingested not as soil per sé but rather in
the form of dust deposited loosely on vegetation. As the digestibility

of the vegetation consumed by grazing cattle in Area 13 is unknown, it
is theoretically possible, as pointed out earlier, that the daily intake
of vegetation could be closer to 8 kg than to 6 kg.
If that were the
case, most of the observed plutonium ingestion, 565 nCi/day, might be

due to vegetation intake (i.e., 8 kg/day x 70 pCi/g = 560 nCi/day),
leaving only a small amount that might be due to soil ingestion.

The model can, of course, be applied to other contaminated areas at or
near the Nevada Test Site, but the results of such applications will
remain uncertain until methods are devised for estimating (a) the digest-

ibility of vegetation available to grazing cattle in a given area and (b)
the soil ingestion rate.

The soil ingestion rate is difficult to measure

directly, but it seems probable that some sort of estimate could be made
by sampling the sediment (soil) content of fecal materials. As estimates
of I, _, based on the simulation model, are obviously less expensive and

less Eime-consuming than grazing studies conducted by means of fistulated

steers, efforts to implement the model via independent field studies
could prove to be quite rewarding.

504

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