means of the lognormal distributions used to generate the synthetic
samples (Equation 6) but only about 1.5 percent less than the estimate,

565 nCi/g, based on the fistulated steer data (Smith, this volume).

DISCUSSION

The results described above indicate that the simulation model, Equation l,
does a fair job of duplicating the results of the fistulated steer study
(D. D. Smith, this volume).
Considering the large error term indicated
by simulation, 557 + 526 nCi/day, the differences among various estimates

of I,

are negligible; but both the arithmetic (557 nCi/day) and the

geometric (571 pCi/day) estimates based on simulation are closer to the
estimate of I
based on fistulated steer data (565 nCi/day, Smith et al.,

1976) than were previous independent estimates based on theory (585

nCi/day, Martin and Bloom,

1977) or assumed dietary composition (620

nCi/day, Gilbert et al., 1977).

When an earlier but quite similar version of this paper was presented at
the San Diego meeting of NAEG, two questions were raised which merit

consideration here. One had to do with the “apparently inevitable
outcome" of the simulation "given the manner in which it was carried
out.'' The second was an expression of skepticism concerning the evidence

cited for assuming that all factors of the simulation model, Equation 1,
are lognormally distributed.
These questions are discussed below.

Except for the parameter D in Equation 2, which was adjusted to meet the
apparent requirement that a 410-kg cow should be able to obtain enough
digestible energy for maintenance on a daily ration of about 6 kg of
vegetation, the simulation model and the fistulated steer study were
independent.
Because of the "adjustment" of D, a critical parameter,

the two estimates of I,

have been characterized as “almost independent."

The only development required to make them truly independent is an
independent and site-specific method of estimating D, the digestibility
of vegetation available to grazing animals.
If the simulation model yields estimates of I,
which are essentially
the same as estimates based on the rumen conténts of fistulated steers
allowed to graze a fenced area (and it does),

this outcome can be charac-

terized as "inevitable" if, and only if, the model correctly simulates

' the grazing process.
This means that the assumption incorporated in the
model design and the input data used to implement the simulation must be
essentially correct.
The principal assumptions incorporated in the
simulation model are (1) that grazing is a random process which, given
sufficient time, results in the ingestion of a composite random sample
of vegetation and soil and (2) that the factors of the simulation model,
Equation 1, can be represented as independent random variables having
lognormal distributions.
The best evidence that these assumptions and

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