consuming to repeat the grazing and fistulated steer studies.
It might
be desirable, however, to conduct similar studies in other areas or to
apply the results of the Area 13 studies to other contaminated sites at

NTS or elsewhere.

Considering the variability of the data obtained from

Area 13 and expecting similar variability in another study area, how
accurately can the means and standard deviations be estimated on the
basis of a reasonable number of samples?
Can reasonably accurate estimates of I
be obtained from model of I_, an estimate of I_, and measurements of cand CS without having to carry out expensive grazing studies?
To obtain preliminary answers to these and similar questions, a series
of simulation studies was carried out as follows:
Equation 1 was used

to generate five synthetic samples (n =_100) of the vegetation ingestion
rate, Is based on W = 410 + 82 kg and D = 0.48 + 0.12.
These results

were used as estimates of the true means (yu) and standard deviations
(o).
The data, given in Table 5, show little variation and good agree-

ment between the arithmetic and the geometric estimates of means.

Five

synthetic samples of I. were based on the previously explained assumption

that In Ty = 3.93866 +°1.74636.

The results given in Table 6 show

estimates (n = 100) ranging from about 150 to about 250 g/day, somewhat

below the "reasonable" range (250 to 500 g/day) suggested by Smith
(1977).
Synthetic samples of C_ and C_, Tables 7? and 8, were generated by
of Equation 3, the lognormal parameters given in Table 4, and the
of fj indicated in Table 3.
The synthetic samples of Cy indicate
overall mean of 70 pCi/day (n = 500) versus 71 pCi/day expected.

means of subsamples (n = 100) ranged from 67 to 73 pCi/day.

means
values
an
The

Synthetic

samples of C_, Table 8, exhibit similar properties; but the overall
mean, 540 pci /g, was about 7 percent less than the expected value, 579

pCi/g.

The final step in the simulation study was to generate synthetic samples

of I
based on Equation 1 and the lognormal distribution parameters
obtained from the synthetic samples just discussed and summarized in
Tables 5, 6, 7, and 8.
The specific values of (xg + sg =u toa) were
the following:

xg(l1n I)

8.72942 * 0.31988

Table 7:

xg(in C_)

4.05989 * 0.57563

Table 6:

xg(1n I)

3.87002 + 1.77244

Table 8:

xg(1n C)

6.10021 + 0.59454

+

+

Table 5:

The pocket calculator program used to generate the synthetic samples of
Toy summarized in Table 9, is described in Appendix I.

The simulation estimate of I w 557 nCi/day (Table 9), is about 2.5

percent less than the estimate, 571 nCi/day, based on the arithmetic

498

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