Considering the extreme variability of plutonium concentrations in
vegetation and soil samples taken from Area 13 by other members of the

NAEG and the inherent uncertainties involved in estimating vegetation

and-soil ingestion rates, the writers of this article felt it would be
worthwhile to reexamine the available vegetation and soil data and the
theoretical basis for estimating plutonium ingestion rates for herbivores.
This led to the development of a quasistochastic model for simulating
the ingestion of plutonium by a hypothetical cow or a hypothetical herd
of cattle grazing the inner compound of Area 13, unhampered by the realworld restrictions imposed by limited space and vegetation.
By means of
a simulation model, the area in question can be hypothetically stocked
with as many cows as might be desired and for as long a period of time
as might be deemed appropriate.
Based on well-defined assumptions and
making full use of available data, a simulation model based on strictly
defined random processes should provide a fair estimate of the mean
plutonium ingestion rate as well as an idea of the range of mean values
and error terms that might be expected from hypothetical experiments
conducted with or without the restrictions imposed on real-world experiments.

THE MODEL

In previous studies (Martin and Bloom, 1976 and 1977), it was assumed

that cattle grazing a plutonium-contaminated desert range would ingest
both vegetation and soil and that the total plutonium ingestion rate
could be expressed by
Tou = 1c, + 1c.

(1)

where, Ip
is the plutonium ingestion rate, pCi/day,
u,
.
:
:
.
T. is the vegetation ingestion rate, g/day (dry weight),

and

Cy is the plutonium concentration, pCi/g, in vegetation,
I. is the soil ingestion rate, g/day,
Cc. is the plutonium concentration, pCi/g,

in soil.

Cattle are assumed to graze randomly within the fenced area (95.5 ha) of
the inner compound.
What this assumption means, in effect, is that if
the area of the inner compound were divided into a grid of very small
squares all the same size, each subdivision would have an equal prob-

ability of contributing to the intake of vegetation and soil.

Individual

animals may exhibit a preference for one subarea compared to another or
for one plant species compared to another.
A whole herd of animals may
exhibit seasonal preferences with respect to subdivisions of the fenced
area or with respect to plant species, and similar unspecified but
nonrandom behavior patterns may apply to the ingestion of soil.
The

point of the "random-grazing-assumption" is that during the course of a
year,

the total vegetation and soil consumption by a herd of grazing

485

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