apart by chemical explosives to test in part for

1

"safety" against fission

reactions.
A consequence of these tests was the contamination of the
immediately surrounding soil and vegetation with plutonium, americium,

and/or uranium.

The Area 13 data set is characterized by a single, very large plutonium
concentration obtained near ground zero (GZ, point of detonation) with
surrounding concentrations falling off rapidly in all directions from GZ

in an unsymmetrical pattern. Hence, the "true" concentration surface
has a definite structure or pattern with relatively low levels of contami-

nation predominating within one or two thousand feet from GZ (depending
on direction).
A goal of the current NAEG sampling program is to evaluate
the potential hazard to man from this contamination if these areas were
ever released for habitation.
This evaluation has included the collection
of several thousand soil, vegetation, small vertebrate, and cattle
tissue samples for radiochemical analysis (White and Dunaway, 1975;

Dunaway and White, 1974).

An important objective of this effort is to estimate the spatial pattern
(concentration surface) of plutonium about GZ as it presently exists in
surface soil (top 5 cm).
Gilbert et al. (1975, 1976b) and Gilbert and

Eberhardt (1977) have experimented with estimating the spatial pattern
of plutonium in surface soil and vegetation at safety-shot sites using

"nearest neighbor" and polynomial fitting routines in both original and
logarithmic scales.

John Tukey suggested (see discussion following the

paper by Eberhardt and Gilbert, 1976) that better fits to the data might

be obtained if the fitting routine was applied iteratively on residuals.
For example, the residuals from the first fit would themselves be fitted
and added to the initial fit of t
original data.
More generally, if
observation ¥y (i = 1,2,...,n) and
Ri; is the residual between the i
the smoothed (fitted) value y., obtained on the ym iteration (j =
1,2,...,m), then
*J
aA

Ys = 95, 7 Fey

(lst iteration)

(1)

Riy = Yio + Rio

(2nd iteration)

(2)

and

so that

Yi Var F%i2 FR

(3)

For m iterations, we may write
m

Rim ~ %n 7 2y

jel

m
where >

j=

Yay

>

(4)

.
Vag is the final smoothed estimate of y,, and Ron the final

residual.

321

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