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trol, in such a crisis, the ability of the local and State governments to survive the impactof aftack will be a
crucial factor in the reestablishment of central direction of the national effort.
We mentioned above the importance of planning for the continuity of civil governmeyt at all levels.
There is an important psychological factor here that deserves emphasis. Recovery from the widespread
psychological and emotional shock is likely to be much more rapid within a familiar social Fabric. While
it will be essential that available military resources be used toassist the civil government,it will be equally
important to a rapid recovery that the recognized civil leaders and the familiar civil institutigns be restored
to functioning to the maximum possible extent as rapidly as possible.
A determinedeffort to strengthen civil defense should be characterized by a blending off[programs and
recommended measures into the normal governmental machinery and community patterms. Wherever
possible, they should be identified with activities that have a recognizable social value in pfacetime.
For
example, first aid training on a large scale will save lives right now. The utilization of the American Red
Cross for civil defense first aid training is an example in practice of blending programs intp normal com-
munity patterns. The reduction of fire susceptibility of our homes and commiunities prevents loss of life
and property in peacetime. The improvement of highways leading into and around ouf metropolitan
centers will reduce peacetime traffic congestion and highway accidents. The dispersipn of industry
and the thinning out of our congested metropolitan areas in an orderly, evolutionary manher could offer
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many attractions to both labor and management. The organization and training of the seferal operating
elements in civil defense is also of great value in meeting the impact of natural disasters.
Americans are courageous people. They are somewhat ashamed of being overly careful and unduly
self-protective. Manywill participate in training to cope with hurricane damage and cashalties because
they can point to the occurrence of hurricanes in the past, and can recall the demonstrate@
training. The same people, however, may hesitate to don a civil defense helmet when
is considered unlikely.
value of such
quclear warfare
y of example.
In the foregoing discussion we have drawn heavily on the civil defense program by
This has been due not only to the fact that more information on civil defense was availablP to us than on
the other security programs, but also to the fact that an effective civil defense program wil require more
widespread participation and involvement than any of the others. It would be essential] however, that
any program of “‘town-meeting”’ discussion be broad enoughto increase public understandjngofall of the
national security programs and their relation to each other. It is obvious that we are offering here an
idea for a program, rather than the details.
Revised Estimate
A vigorously supported program of “involvement” of the people would in our opinibn bring about
a significant change in preparedness and capacity to withstand attack. We believe that swch a program,
supplemented by the more usual dissemination of information by mass media methods] can achieve a
significant degree of success. Against a background of such preparation of the people, weJwould estimate
that in the event of a massive nuclear attack on the United States, of the proportions assumed earlter, § oth the war effort
and the national Government would be effectively supported.
Such an estimateis of course not provable, butit is the best that can be made with the esources available. It may be worth while to examine briefly some of the significant factors in huma behavior that
lead us to arrive at this judgment.
There would of course belittle difference, so far as physical damage is concerned. Th t important differences would be found in the fact that people would have a morerealistic expectation o | the experience
and knowledge of what to do to meet it. While the damage and casualties would be uly staggering,
the morerealistic the expectation of the event, the less apathy, disorganizing anxiety and rqsultant hostility
an important
to constituted authority would be generated. This psychological preparation would
factor in sustaining both individual morale and the integrity of the social structure.
Fears would be diminished, although certainly not dissipated. Fears of radioactivi would persist,
but would be markedly lessenedith increased understanding of the phenomenonand of e ective measures
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