ESTIMATE OF THE EFFECT OF INCREASED AWARENESS
OF
NUCLEAR WEAPONSEFFECTS ON THE PROBABLE ATTIJUDES
OF PEOPLE TOWARD THE INITIATION OF GENERAL|WAR
BY THE DULY CONSTITUTED LEADERS OF NATIONS.
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As noted in the introduction (see page 5), we have felt somewhatless qualified to render ar estimate
on this question since it obviously requires a greater background of “area expertise’’ than exists in the Panel.
A reasonably comprehensive estimate on this point would have to take into account the probaif distortions involved in the development of increased awareness on the part of the publics of differen] nations.
It would need to assess to some degree the impact(or lack of it) of public attitudes on the notion of duly
constituted leaders of nations. It would also involve a comprehensive knowledge of the backgrofind, tra-
Dime
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ditions, cultures, and temperaments of various peoples.
Webelieve, nevertheless, that it is a reasonable generalization that the people of all natiohs, when
confronted with the capability of mutual nuclear destruction thatis postulated, will be reluctant t@ support
the initiation of general war by their duly constituted leaders. We recognize, however, that it if possible
that the attitudes of the people of some nations might be modified if they were led to expect thaf striking
the first blow would enable them to escape a massive retaliatory nuclear attack, which repr¢sents, of
course, a departure from the postulate of mutual annihilation.
So far as the United States is concerned, we believe that only a small number of people wopld favor
a preventive war. Nevertheless, the topic is obviously important and should be taken into accqunt as a
possible danger by those carrying out the program of citizen involvement.
Some members of the Panel believe that in a few nations, underthe spell of either religious fervor or
extreme nationalism, the attitudes of the people would supportthe initiation of general war evdn in the
face of almost certain massive nuclear retaliation. Others disagree, or feel that they have n@ special
qualifications to exercise judgment on this point.
All agree, however, that it would be morefrpitful for
the area experts available to the Government to comment on the generalization contained in th
paragraph above.
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