ESTIMATE OF THE EFFECT OF INCREASED AWARENES$ OF
NUCLEAR WEAPONSEFFECTS ON THE PROBABLE ATTITUDES
OF PEOPLE TOWARD THE INITIATION OF GENERAL WAR
BY THE DULY CONSTITUTED LEADERS OF NATIONS.
As noted in the introduction (see page 5), we have felt somewhatless qualified to render an fstimate
on this question since it obviously requires a greater backgroundof “‘area experitse’’ than exists in the Panel.
A reasonably comprehensive estimate on this point would have to take into account the probablf distortions involved in the development of increased awareness on the part of the publics of different nations.
It would need to assess to some degree the impact(or lack of it) of public attitudes on the actiong of duly
constituted leaders of nations. It would also involve a comprehensive knowledge of the background, tra-.
ditions, cultures, and temperaments of various peoples.
Webelieve, nevertheless, that it is a reasonable generalization that the people of all natio
the area experts available to the Government to comment on the generalization contained in the]second
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that the attitudes of the people of some nations might be modified if they were led to expect that}striking
the first blow would enable them to escape a massive retaliatory nuclear attack, which repregents, of
course, a departure from the postulate of mutual annihilation.
So far as the United States is concerned, we believe that only a small number of people would favor
a preventive war. Nevertheless, the topic is obviously important and should be taken into accoynt as a
possible danger by those carrying out the program ofcitizen involvement.
Some membersof the Panel believe that in a few nations, under the spell of either religious f@rvor or
extreme nationalism, the attitudes of the people would support the initiation of general war evem in the
face of almost certain massive nuclear retaliation. Others disagree, or feel that they have no] special
qualifications to exercise judgment on this point. All agree, however, that it would be more frultful for