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ESTIMATE OF THE EFFECTS OF NUCLEAR ATT¥GK’ON THIS
COUNTRY UPON THE CIVILIAN POPULATION AND UPON
ORGANIZED SOCIETY
Assumptions
_
In order to arrive at ourestimate of effects, it was necessary to make certain assumptions witl{ respect
to the weight of attack and degree of physical damage. We have made such assumptions, not aga result
of any precise war-gaming, but simply premised on the basic thought that an attack is unlikely funtil an
aggressor has achieved nuclear plenty. The only logical assumption that can be madeis that aq attack,
if it comes, will be an attempted knockout blow. The year 1959 has been arbitrarily chosen as fhe time
when the U.S.S.R. will have achieved nuclear plenty, and has been used as our base year for the fssumptions and estimates that follow. We concede readily that there may be more logical times, and do not
attach any particular intelligence significance to our assumption. If different assumptions wefe made
either as to magnitude of damageor timing, our estimates would be influenced in the relevant direction,
but the essential character of our conclusion would remain.
Wehave assumed that such anall-out attack on this country, if any degree of strategic surprjse could
be achieved, would substantially destroy about 90 of our metropolitan centers, leaving perhaps an equal
numberunaffected by blast and heat. Included in those not structurally damaged would be pefhaps 10
or 15 of our 50 largest cities. We assume that about 50 million of our people would be casualties,[ possibly
more than half as a result of radiation exposure. Of the 50 million total, we assume that 30 to 3§ million
would either be killed instantly or die within a few months. Most of the 120 million people who Were not
casualties would be assailed in varying degrees by fears that they had been subject to sufficient qadiation
exposure to cause illness, sterility or death.
Weassume that an attack of the magnitude suggested by these figures would also have esr or
caused major damage to manufacturing and processing plants, communication lines, transportation
facilities, electric power and other public utilities, and to the nation’s housing. Radiation hazarfls would
beset the nation’s agriculture.
Weassumethat enoughof the national leadership would have survivedto furnish a potentiallyjeffective
rallying point for a national effort toward recovery, provided our people have been sufficiently pr¢pared in
advance.
Interaction of Types of Damage
Some gross assumption of physical damage is necessary, since physical, sociological and psychological
effects influence each otherto a significant degree. Widespread physical damage would be accdmpanied
by damage to the organization of society at least in the immediate environs and would also hdve a depressing effect on the behavior andattitudes of individuals. Damageto the social fabric would tend to
increase negative individual behavior and impair efforts to reduce or repair physical damape. And
finally, extensive psychological damage to the population would be reflected in social disorganization and
ineffective efforts to reduce or repair physical damage.
Estimate
In the event of a massive nuclear attack on the United States, of the proportions assumed above, without \drastically
improved preparation of the people, support of the National Government and of the war effort would be in jeopardy, and
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national disintegration might well result.
oPOPTVHORET
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