qganet
Winds and observed winds during the period of GRAVO were withio
these observational limits,
On the last specific wind forecast
igsued at H minus & hours, there were ten (10) winds forecast to
be above 10 knots which can be campared with the observed winds
taken fram the CURTISS at BRAVO hour.
Of these ten (10) winds,
six (6) differed by 10 degrees, two (2) by 20 degrees, one (1)
by 30 degrees and one (1) by 40 degrees.
80 per cent of the
.
forecast winds which can be checked in the immediate locale were
within observational limits imposed by the equipment itself.
The
errers of 30 degrees and 40 degrees were the forecasts for the
levels immediately above and below 10,000 feet.
6.
CONCLUSIONS:
a.
Weather coniitions during the five days prior to BRAVO day were
indicative of a favorable trend for BRAVO, involving on an average,
easterly winds below 15,000 feet, with winds of a southerly component
above.
ERAVO minus 2 and BRAVO minus ] days were especially favorable
fran a fallout point of view.
The weatber situation presented at z
minus 6 hours for a 2) hour period was setisfactory; however, an unfavorable trend was predicted to occur curing the following 2k hows
singm. northwest winds were forecast for the 10,000 to 20,000 foot
ey
-
levef#. This trend res borne out by leter observations.
be
The forecast wind directions were well within the normal forecast
ezror, which rust be anticipated.
Forecasts of the seme precisicn as
those made in ereas of dense observation networks cannot be expected
in this erea.
The forecasts of Fincs eloft for TRAVO were, neresthee
less, approaching the limits of biccan ability which the ert et presest
allors.
Soe
b
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