1. GENERALSITUATION a, The atmosphere of tensios existing between the U.S. and its allies and the USSR and its satellites stands little chance of diminishing during the next six (6) months. There is a possibility that it may increase as the result of possible further Soviet inspired actions against nations on the geographical fringe of the Soviet bloc. 2. GENERAL SOVIFT CAPABILITIES. a. The armed forces of the USSR are maintained in an advanced state of military readiness. As a result, the Soviets can undertake military aggression with little or no acvance warning. 3. SOVIETGAPABILITIESASAPPLIED TOJTFSEVEN: a. Naval Capabilitzes. The Soviets have twenty-one (21) ocean patrol and thirty-seven (37) medium renre type submarines in the Pacific Ocean area. Because of endurance iimitatioss of the medium range type, it is believed tnat the ocean patrol type would be the better for operations in the ENIWETOK and BIKIYI arsss it is estimated that at least four (4) to six (6) ocean patro. satmarines could be maintained on station in the ENIWETOX-BIKINI area andetinately and for short periods this number could be increased - bo Aix Capauiiities: ili Aerial photo and radiological re«onnaissance of the ENIWETOK-BIKiNI area from Far East bases (Sakhalin or the Kwules; 13 within Soviet capabllities, Without refueiing. the TU-., modified for long range recomaissance. corld remain in the target area for only a brief period. making necvessary prior Soviet access to CASTLE (Restricted, S1) plans to permit proper taming of recomnazssance flights, Assuming thet tne Soviets neve Ceveloped techniques equal to the U S , one outbound refueling would extend the time over the tarpet ares to over four (4) hours, There is no evidencs, however, that the Soviets have deve! oped refueling capabilities. Third Long Range Air Force, stationed in the Far Fast, 18 presently re-equippirg with TUe4‘s, the It is estimated that its wurreit TO/E strength for TU-, s ig appronimateiy one hundred (100), No TU~.. ¢ are known tw be modified for long range reconnaissance. (2) The only Soviet aarcraft known to have greater range potentialities than the TU-4 is the Type 31 prototype heavy ocomber which was observed in flight for the farst and only time to date in the July 1951 Aviation Dey air show in Moscow. If equipped with the JU-022 turbzprop engire the Type 31 would have a TASK GROUF 7. ARR AR NTD woe otps ir. 4.82 oF 5% We3 cho*® 29? ® wo © Se, 2: °