CONTIDENTTAT
or high-speed winds according to a system developed by Technical Operations Incorpo-

rated, as described in another oro study."
Briefly, this system considers the distance to which a 100-y particle will travel from
a height of 60,000 ft. A “low” wind-speed pattern results from the particle traveling 30

miles or less; a “medium” pattern, 31 to 150 miles; and a ‘“‘high” pattern, 150 or more
miles,
Tabulation of readings by season, wind speed, and bearing (see Table 8) indicated that
in the winter months high wind patterns could be expected 63 percent of the time, and that
40 percent of the time the most likely bearing would be 80 deg. During the summer
months the model pattern was moderate winds (67 percent of the time), 26 percent of the

time with a bearing of 110 deg. There was considerably more variability both as to speed

and bearing of upper winds during summer months. During summer months the 100-¢
particle could be expected to fall to the west of az (between 180 and 360 deg) 21 percent
of the time, whereas in the winter sample this occurred only 3 percent of the time.

TABLE 8
Winp PaTreRN AND BEARING AS FUNCTION oF SEASON

Distribution of wind patterns
Bearing,
eg

0-30
31-60
61-90

91-120

121-150

151-180

181-210

June through September

October through March

Low

Moderate

High

Low

5

2
3
12

4

8)

2
2

211-240
241-270

3
2

Total

271-300
301-330
331-360

17

5

Moderate

High

1
2

6
2

1
2
21

1

4

1

2

5

7

1

1

2

1
1
2

I

20

o4

6

21

11

36

Four gz for weapons aimed at the center of Washington and three cz for weapons

aimed at the population center of Baltimore were selected on a probability basis for attacks with cep of 4000, 8000, and 12,000 m. Fallout contours were then drawn over a
population map and the number of expected deaths for.the corrected 48-hr cumulative
dose * were computed by multiplying the population enclosed by the mortality coefficients
shown in Fig. 29,17
*It was assumed that on the Eastern Shore shelter would be available that would attenuate radiation
by a factor of 0.5 and on the mainland by a factor of 0.9 (the high water table on the Eastern Shore precludes most below-grade construction). Overlapping fallout contours were considered to be directly additive. Deaths due to close-in or stem fallout around az are not included in these comparisons. (Thelimits
of collapse to wood-frame dwellings extend nearly to the 500-r limit. Deaths in this area are presumed to
be from blast and thermal injury and from the combinedeffects of radiation, fractures, lacerations, and
burns.)

ORO-R-17 (App B)

41

Select target paragraph3