CONTIDENTTAT or high-speed winds according to a system developed by Technical Operations Incorpo- rated, as described in another oro study." Briefly, this system considers the distance to which a 100-y particle will travel from a height of 60,000 ft. A “low” wind-speed pattern results from the particle traveling 30 miles or less; a “medium” pattern, 31 to 150 miles; and a ‘“‘high” pattern, 150 or more miles, Tabulation of readings by season, wind speed, and bearing (see Table 8) indicated that in the winter months high wind patterns could be expected 63 percent of the time, and that 40 percent of the time the most likely bearing would be 80 deg. During the summer months the model pattern was moderate winds (67 percent of the time), 26 percent of the time with a bearing of 110 deg. There was considerably more variability both as to speed and bearing of upper winds during summer months. During summer months the 100-¢ particle could be expected to fall to the west of az (between 180 and 360 deg) 21 percent of the time, whereas in the winter sample this occurred only 3 percent of the time. TABLE 8 Winp PaTreRN AND BEARING AS FUNCTION oF SEASON Distribution of wind patterns Bearing, eg 0-30 31-60 61-90 91-120 121-150 151-180 181-210 June through September October through March Low Moderate High Low 5 2 3 12 4 8) 2 2 211-240 241-270 3 2 Total 271-300 301-330 331-360 17 5 Moderate High 1 2 6 2 1 2 21 1 4 1 2 5 7 1 1 2 1 1 2 I 20 o4 6 21 11 36 Four gz for weapons aimed at the center of Washington and three cz for weapons aimed at the population center of Baltimore were selected on a probability basis for attacks with cep of 4000, 8000, and 12,000 m. Fallout contours were then drawn over a population map and the number of expected deaths for.the corrected 48-hr cumulative dose * were computed by multiplying the population enclosed by the mortality coefficients shown in Fig. 29,17 *It was assumed that on the Eastern Shore shelter would be available that would attenuate radiation by a factor of 0.5 and on the mainland by a factor of 0.9 (the high water table on the Eastern Shore precludes most below-grade construction). Overlapping fallout contours were considered to be directly additive. Deaths due to close-in or stem fallout around az are not included in these comparisons. (Thelimits of collapse to wood-frame dwellings extend nearly to the 500-r limit. Deaths in this area are presumed to be from blast and thermal injury and from the combinedeffects of radiation, fractures, lacerations, and burns.) ORO-R-17 (App B) 41