‘
Sn tn leneteee
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Several patterns emerge from inspection of these data.
(a) In every case, increased crp of the attack favors the defender; this may be a function of the decreasing probability of hitting the highly concentrated city center plus the
probability of the weapon landing outside the target.
(b) With increased cep of the attack the difference in immediate deaths as a function
of taking one civil defense action or another is markedly reduced.
TasLe 7
PERCENTAGE TARGET POPULATION KILLED IN ATTACKS OF VARIOUS
S1zE anp CEP ror Various Crvin DEFENSE ACTIONS
Deaths, percent
‘
Target and defender action
10-Mt
weapons,
cep 4000
m
10-Mt
weapons,
weapons,
cep 8000
m | 10-Mt
cEP 12,000
m
1{/2/3]/4;/if2[3]/4}1f2]3 [a4
Boston
Best available shelter
Underground shelter
Minimum evacuation (i br)
D Maximum evacuation (3 hr)
36 55 66 73 27 46
10 17 23 28
6 12
31 47 58 64 24 41
19 30 37 42 16 28
60
18
54
37
69
238
63
44
19 .34 47 58
4
8 12 16
17 32 43 53
138 23 32 40
Best available shelter
Undergroundshelter
Minimum evacuation (1.5 hr)
Maximum evacuation (4 hr)
Milwaukee
Best available shelter
66
24
13
6
92 — —
43 56 67
20 26 29
9 12 144
40
11
11
5
66
21
20
9
83
30
27
18
94
38
#33
15
25 44
6 411
10 18
5 9
59
17
25
13
62
87
99
—
39
65
81
92
24
43
58 70
Minimum evacuation (1 hr)
Maximum evacuation (4 hr)
27
10
43
17
52
21
59
24
22
9
87
17
49
22
58
27
16
8
29
15
40 50
21 26
54
17
78 91
30 41
98
49
35
9
14
9
59
18
25
16
75
26
86
33
23
5
41
10
21
15
55 67
15 20
30 37
21 26
48
14
13
6
71 84
26 35
22 28
10 13
92
42
32
15
33
8
12
6
56
16
20
10
71
23
28
14
82
20
34
17
21
5
10
5
39
10
18
10
53
14
25
14
ayton
i
Underground shelter
St. Louis
Best available shelter
Undergroundshelter
Minimum evacuation (2 hr)
Maximum evacuation (4 hr)
Washington
Best available shelter
Underground shelter
Minimum evacuation (1 hr)
Maximum evacuation (3 hr)
22 39 52 62
16
10
26
16
82
20
37
23
11 20 29 36
38
21
40
26
6 11
11
10
71
22
31
17
16 21
64
19
32
18
(c) Increased cep of the attack favors shelter policies rather than a policy of evacua-
tion; in every case where shelter is not preferable to evacuation regardless of cep thereis
some critical cep where a “‘stay put”’ policy results in fewer casualties than the amount of
evacuation available for the next few years.
Thus for Boston, even seeking the best
shelter nowavailable is preferable to evacuation when the cep reaches 10,000 m (Fig. 14).
For the Dayton target, evacuation is less effective than underground shelter at cep above
8000 m (Fig. 15). The samesituation exists for St. Louis after 5000 m (Fig. 17) and for
Washington above 6000 m (Fig. 18).
(d) When the cep reaches 12,000 m, evacuation is preferable to underground shelter
for only one target, Dayton (Fig. 22), and even then only for the maximum warning time.
(e) Increasing the number of weapons used in the attack exaggerates the difference in
numbers of persons killed as a function of taking different civil defense actions. Thus for
Boston the difference in the percentage of population killed as a result of taking the least
32
ORO-R-17 (App B)
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