ihe
Schaalala RRM RTnak lasee Tk eTa ener
CONFIDENTIAT"
Two attacks were postulated — a winter attack using a high wind pattern and a bearing of 80 deg and a summerattack with a moderate wind pattern and a bearing of 110 deg.
Fallout contours for attacks with cep of 4000 and 12,000 m areillustrated in Figs. 30
and 31.
|
dy
a ae
100
80 ~
z
u9
60F-
¢-
40}
uw
a
<
Pr
a
20}-
0
}
0
100
200
L
i
j
300
400
500
600
CUMULATIVE 2-DAY RADIATION DOSE, r
Fig. 29 — Percentage Deaths as Function of Cumulative 2-Day Radiation Dose
Results
Table 9 shows the expected deaths from these attacks. Several points emerge.
(a) It can be seen that although the numberof deaths increases with the numberof
weapons, the increase is by no means linear. When the az are concentrated (cer 4000 m),
eA kla yeaa ae ne er
the greatest increase occurs as a function of dropping two weapons rather than one on each
target, resulting in an increase for most of the target from a corrected dose (dose received
in shelter with 0.9 attenuation) of 250 r, which kills only 5 percent of the population, to a
corrected dose of 500 r, which can be expected to kill 88 percent. The smaller increase
in the numberof deaths resulting from dropping a total of seven weapons rather than four
can be attributed to the fact that few new populations are encountered and the increase
can come only from the remaining 12 percent of the population not killed by the previous
attack. When the cep is large (12,000 m), the increase in deaths with increase in number
of bursts tends to be more uniform,since fallout occurs over larger areas and new populations are encountered.
(b) Although the winter fallout pattern is of less intensity and smaller area than the
summerpattern, more people are killed by the winter pattern when the numberof burstsis
large enough to create lethal concentrations. This seems to be almost entirely due to the
winter bearing of 90 deg, which carries the fallout over the more densely populated north-
ern peninsula, including the Atlantic City area.
42
twin
ORO-R-17 (App B)
nereerecep
eee