Range

1726-2001

3174-9078

87-101

160-458

From the above the minimum estimate of cancer risk would be given by a
risk coefficient of 87/10° person rem and the maximum by 458/10° person
rem.

Thus, these two risk coefficients were used to define a range of

estimated cancer deaths.
2.

Genetic Effects (from Page 1 & 2 BEIR-1)
a.

Based on specific defects 5 rem/30 year reproductive

generation would cause in the first generation 100-1800 cases of

dominant diseases and defects per year (3.6 million births/year)
or 5 times this amount at equilibrium.

The 1800 cases represent

an increase of 0.05% incidences per year first generation and 0.25%

at equilibrium.

In addition there would be a few chromosomal defects

and recessive diseases and a few congenial defects due to a single
gene defect and chromosome aberrations.
The total incidence at equilibrium is 1100 to 27,000/year.

These

at equilibrium, the maximum would be 0.75% or 0.15% in the first

generation.
These are equivalent to 0.15% per rem at equilibrium and 0.03%/rem
in the first generation.
b.

Based on overall il] health.

Overall il] health:

5% - 50%

of i]1 health is proportional to the mutation rate using 20% and
doubling dose of 20 rem, 5 rem per generation would eventually lead
to a 5% increase in il] health.
Thus the rate of overall i11 health is 1%/rem at equilibrium or

0.2%/rem in first generation.
For estimating the potential genetic derived health defects in the
Bikini population it was decided to use a risk coefficient of 0.2%
per rem in the first generation recognizing that it was probably
very conservative.

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