George M. Allen, Esquire
Page 2
September 19, 1975
include the internal dose estimate.
The correction
needed to normalize to the Bikini exposure under
these assumptions would be
1000
2,000,000
*
0.2
g.,7
™
Se
24100,000-
In other words, divide the entries in Table 3-1 by
100,000.
a
For reasons that are discussed in the
enclosed report by Art Tamplin and me I believe you
should use the upper limit estimate in Table 3-1 (i.e.,
the relative risk model - cases (b)}).
Under these
assumptions you could expect about 9,078/100,000 =
39.09 cancers per year, or one cancer every 10 years
as a result of this exposure.
You must also consider the genetic risk.
The same BEIR Report estimated that the total incidence
of all identified serious genetic diseases due to 5
rem per 30 year reproductive generation to the U.S.
population would be between 1,100 and 27,000 per year
at equilibrium.
In addition, there would be an increase
of between 0.5% and 5% in the ill health of the population.
Since my Bikini assumption is equivalent approximately
to 5 rem/generation to 1,000 people, the BEIR Report
genetic effect estimate must be multiplied by
1,000/200 ,000,000
=
1/200 ,000
Thus, one could expect between 0.005 and 0.14 serious
genetic effects per year, or up to l serious genetic
effect every 7 years.
Again, for reasons noted in the
report by Tamplin and me the upper limit estimate should
“2 used.
In summary, based on the assunstions I
nave made, tne combined risk would be 1 cancer every
10 years and one genetic effect every 7 years plus a
0.5% to 5% increase in overall ill health.
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