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“TOP SeCKET
THE DEPUTY SECRETARY OF DEFENSE
WASHINGTON 23, D. C.
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21 March 1958
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MEMORANDUM FOR THE CHAIRMAN, AD HOC PANEL ON NUCLEAR
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Testing
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SUBJECT: ; The Effects of a Total Suspension or Cessation of Nucleas
Pursuant to NSC Action No. 1840, 6 January 1958, representa- |
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tives of the Department of Defense have participated in the discussions
of your Panel concerning the technical feasibility of monitoring a nuclear
weapons tests suspension and the predicted technological status of the
United States and the USSR with respect to the development of nuclear .
weapons, assuming a total suspension of nuclear tests as of 1 September
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1958, , Documents prepared by the Atomic Energy Commission and the
Central Intelligence Agency portraying the predicted position of the
United States and the USSR, respectively, have been considered by the
Joint Chiefs of Staff and their views relative to the military impact of
cesaation of testing are transmitted herewith.
The reports of the Atomic Energy Commission and the Central
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mates of the technological positiona of ti United States and the USSR,
with the understanding that events of the near future may necessitate
significant revisiong of these estimates.’ Broadly stated, the estimates
indicate that at present and also aa of the end of 1958, the United States
applications, in the economy of wee of special nuclear materials and
possibly in knowledge of weapons effects of a specialized nature.
lt is reagonable. to assume that with the continuation of testing the
gap will be narrowed and that both nations may be expected to attain the
practicable limite of nuclear weapon development as these limits can be
foreseen at this time. It is equally reasonable to assume that in the
absenceof testing the gap will likewise be narrowed but at a slower
rate which will be governed by a number of factors over which the
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Intelligence Agency are accepted as reasonable and satisfactory esti-
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