given in Table 1 of our 1979 Assessment (page 30)
for the
linear-quadratic dose-response model become 2.81 and 7.70
for the absolute and relative risk projection models
and those for the linear dose response model become 6.58
and 18.19 under the absolute and the relative projections
respectively.
These are not large changes
constitutes a small decrease),
(indeed one
but the largest is roughly
two fold.
Genetic Risk Estimates.
The dose estimate revisions make
very little difference in the numerical genetic effects
estimates given in our 1979 Assessment
example,
(page 25).
For
the first generation increased risk estimate
upper bound estimate is changed from 177 to 218 cases per
million live births or, more meanfully perhaps, from about
0.08 to about 0.1 cases among the roughly 49 cases expected
from other causes in the next Enewetak generation if the
population just replaces itself.
Similarly,
the absolute
upper limit of credible risk of genetic ill health
(page 26)
for a child born on Enjebi eight years from now who has
a child at age 30 is increased only from roughly 3 to 4.5 chances
in 10,000, which must still be compared with the roughly
one chance in ten normal risk,
Cancer Risk Estimates.
a very small increment indeed.
The effect of the newer dose
and cancer risk coefficients is also small.
A comparison
of the new with the old estimates is shown as Table I.
It