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September 10, 1982
CALCULATION OF POTENTIAL RADIATION CAUSED HEALTH EFFECTS
FOR PERSONS LIVING IN THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS
Potential health effects for persons living in the northern
Marshall Islands are calculated using the same assumptions and same
methods used for the Bikini population (copy attached).
Risk
coefficients from both BEIR I and BEIR III were used providing not only
a range of estimates but also a comparison of the most conservative
(linear, relative risk model ) with what would be described by many
radiation biologists as the most probable (linear-quadratic, absolute
model ).
POPULATION ESTIMATES
The following population estimates are derived by simple ratios
from the Bikini calculation (copy attached) for a population of 550.
These calculations predicted 1277 births, 164 deaths over a period of 30
years and a final population of 1684 after 30 years for an initial
population of 550.
Deaths in 30 years:
164
deaths in population of interest
!ZXT=7nitial
population of interest
Births in 30 years:
~0=
-Population after 30 years:
births in population of interest
Inltlal population of interest
1684
~=
copulation after 30 years
initial population of interest
Also from the Bikini population, the estimate of the full 30 year
dose received by children born during the 30 year period is 0.36 of the
dose persons living the entire 30 year period would receive.