Project wone___{
s"¢Battelle
Internal Distribution
Pacific Northwest Laboratories
LE Sever
Date
May 27, 1980
To
From
W. J. Bair
Ethel Gilbert
Subject
Cancer Risk Calculations for Enewetak
410147
E4
With data on all cause age-specific death rates (including infant
mortality), one could fairly easily estimate the risk of developing
leukemia (or other cancers) for
1)
Persons born on the island at any point in time,
2)
Persons entering the island at any given age at any point in time.
(Practically, these calculations would probably be for each 10 year interval).
Translating these risk estimates into estimates of the number of
radiation induced deaths is a far more difficult task since such estimates
require knowledge of the size and age distribution of the population over
the next 50 years. - The simplest assumption one could make would be that the
population stayed constant.
Alternatively one could specify birth rates,
death rates, and immigration rates, and proceed to simulate the population
for a 50 year period.
However, slight deviations from assumptions have a
way of snowballing into huge discrepancies.
Furthermore, the calculations
would require the development of a computer program.
It is likely that
such computations would require a minimum of one or two man-months of a
statistician-programmer's time.
I'd be glad to discuss this in further detail.
Perhaps it would
be helpful if I could see a description of the calculations that have
already been made.
S4—1900-001 (3-—71)