MXTEOIK)LOGY
PART THREE
Peter >2ay DW {Rehearsal)
1. ~tended I’orecaete
Because of the vagaries of tropical weather and the incomplete
understandingof the mechauism of atmosphericprocesses in the tropics,
extended forecasta for periods of beyond twenty-four (24) hours cannot
be prepared with any appreciable degree of reliability, This is
especially true when detailed forecast informationon the structure of
winds to great heights and cloud patterns ae
required.
Peter Xdlay Day was scheduled for 8 April with”~
On Peter~~
Hour at 06211L
Day minus three (3), a seventy-two (72) hour period
forecast, was consideredmainl.yas aplenning outlook, even though
the prediction for cloud and winds was made In some detail. It was
emphasized that in no case was the meteorologist,on the basis of
scientificprinciples, justified in declaring with any degree of confidence seventy-two (72) hours in advence that Peter x--
Day would
‘have either favorable or unfavorableweather conditions for the operation,
At best, only trends tovard good or poor weather could be indicated,
It was possible, for example, to indicate that the next twenty-four (24)
or thirty-six (36) hours would have very favorable weather (or poor
weather) and the Task Force Jcmmander would thus have some indication
as to the desirabilityfor altering the target date of the operation,
Thus on Peter ~~
minus 3 days, the outlook forecast was presenteL
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SECTION XII