»
Neon
ge
VASE
Universnty of California
LOS ALAMOS SCIENTIFIC LABORATORY
Los Alamos, New Mex:co 87585
TO:
W. J.
Bair
~2~
DATE:
September 15,
1983
A population of 550 was assumed to be the one that may move back to an
island.
Values for other
of the results.
initial populations may be obtained boy
ratios
The total population at the end of 30 years is given by the
compounding equation:
Pag -= 550 (14+0.038)°° 30.= 1684
The number of births in 30 years are given by:
30
Bs ote (1..038)" dx
Qo
where x is the time between 0 and 30.
_ 0.042%550
B= int.038
30,5
_
{1.038-"-1] =
This gives
1277
Similarly, the number of deaths in the 30 year period would be:
30
Deaths = 0.0054x550
-
(1.038)* dx
6
0.0054x550
30 -1] 4= 164
Deaths _= 7y~gay«(1.0387
One other item needed is the reduction in 30 year dose to those
dorn after the return because of the decrease in radiation levels and
the smaller amount of time in the 30 year period that is spent on the
island.
For this, the total population dose for those born after
returning assuming an initial dose rate of 1 rad/year
is given by: