a
distribution postulated is not one which recommends itself for aggressive
purposes,
For the detection of one or more of the bombs would not merely
compromise the success of the entire project but would give the intended victim
the clearest and most blatant warning imaginable of what to expect and prepare
for.
Except for port cities, in which foreign ships are always gathered, a
surprise attack by air is by every consideration a handierway of doing the job.
VII,
oe
In relation to the destructive powers of the wean{inca Sasource in raw
materials for its production must be considered abundant, .
Everything about the atomic bomb is overshadowed by the twin facts that it
exists and that its destructive power is fantastically great,
Yet within this
framework there are a large number of technical questions which mast be answered
if our policy decisions are to proceed in anything other than complete darkness,
Of first importance are those relating to its availability.
The manner in which the bomb was first tested and used and various indica
tions contained in the Smyth Report suggest that the atomic bomb cannot be "mass
produced" in the usual sense of the term,
It is certainly a scarce commodity
in the sense in which the economist uses the term "scarcity," and it is bound to
remain extremely scarce in relation to the number of TNT or torpex bombs of
comparable size which can be produced,
To be sure, the bomb is so destructive
that even a relatively small number (as compared with other bombs)
may prove
sufficient to decide a war, especially since there will be no such thing as a
"near miss"-~anything near will have all the consequences of a direct hit.
However, the scarcity is likely to be sufficiently important to dictate the
selection of targets and the circumstances under which the missile is
hurled,
A rare explosive will not normally be used against targets which are naturally
dispersed or easily capable of dispersion, such as ships at sea or isolated
industrial plants of no great magnitude,
Nor will it be used in types of attack