\ ~-122- \ development would depend on many unpredictable factors. The suggestion that the two major belligerents might hesitate to expend their atomic bonibs on targets within the weaker countries does not imply that there would be a general tendency not to use atomic weapons at all. TWhile the fear or certainty of retaliation would, as in the case of poison gas, serve as a potent deterrent, it would be dangerous to set too much hope on such abstention in the case of a Soviet-American war. The Russian prospects of winning such a war by the use of non-atomic weapons only were shovm to be slim, particularly if we had maintained our naval and air Supremacy. The Soviet Union would, there- fore, almost inevitably pin herhopes on an mtomic blitz campaign which by its terror and destruction might overwhelm us after all. our best defense cust re- main our ability to discourage any Russian expectation of such a blitz victory. Little confort could be gained from this discussion of the "third line of defense" if all it had proved were that we could hope to ward off defeat at the hands of the Russians provided we were ready to fight on while our cities were being wiped off the map. But that is not the main conclusion. Rather has it appeared that a well-planned and comprehensive policy of determent aimed at pre- chances of success. mt n, venting the Soviet Union from risking a war rf this country offers appreciable Veea | o ous Nobody would want to suggest that we content ourselves with the protection offered by such a policy, But if both countries by their respective military and psychological preparations establish a kind of "equality of determent" between then, agreement on measures of international contrel which permitted then to remain roughly on a par with each other should be able to follow, The end of our monopoly when it comes will make our security and that of all countries which count on our protection far more precarious tha it is today; but there is no reason for panic at the thought that once the Russians have the bomb we shall depend for the very existence of our civilization on the wise and successful pursuit of three major objectives of our foreign policy: on peaceful La’)