\ “a7 take the necessary measures in regard to retaliation.in lrind, “If it is enough to instill the fear of such retaliation, our policy of determent can be made effective despite the handicaps under which we have been found to operate. However, determent, as we said earlier, may require that to the threat of destruction be added the threat that despite all sacrifices victory would not be attained. We must seek to discover, therefore, what chances of victory thetwo countries could expect to have, A war under conditions of dual possession of atomic power could be won by the country which was more capable of accepting punishment; its opponent might collapse or surrender under the sheer impact of atomic attack, In that case the war might take on the character of a brief atomic blitz campaign. If instead neither party were to give up despite the horrors and losses inflicted by atomic weapons the war would be drawn out and call for non-atomic operations and the invasion of enemy territory. It is necessary to assess the winning chances of the two countries in respect to both types of war. If neither had reason to expect victory from a blitz campaign, the decisive deterring factor would be AmeTack of hope of winning a protracted © war. It is hardly necessary to inquire : et er this country would dars attack Russia because it hoped to be more capable of standing destruction. The idea of the United States starting a Soviet-American war appears preposterous in itself. But aside from all other considerations, we have certainly been too much inpressed by the way the Russians were able to take punishment in the last war to have any illusions in that respect. [ven atomic bombardment could hardly exceed very much the damage which the Germans inflicted on the western and southern parts of the Soviet Union; yet the Russians fought on. The chances of winning a war against this country by the use of atomic means alone might look more promising to the Russians, This country has had experience neither with air bombardment nor with the kind of guerilla warfare by lightly armed and independent units which the Russians used last time and 19D