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Folder 2P—_—(peaeiniertct.}scoustie Yield
Estimates
Mr, Olmsted-61110/g1
fer-REDVING
Technical Director
1.
Purpose.
TD~2
.
13 August 15
1
$
This memorandum gives the yield estimates for REDHING shots
based upon the acoustic signal period at maximum amplitude selected by TD-2
from reproductions of the actual recordings, These results are believed
particularly significant in view of the British challenge ofour yield estimate
for Joe 19,
2. Acoustic Data. Table 1 lists the acoustic stations detecting each
shot, the signal period selected at each station, the average signal period
for each shot, the acoustic estirate of yield, the actual reported yield, and
the error in the yield estimate expressed both in KT and in relation to the
standard error, Figure 1 shows the plotted points for REDWING shots in relation
to the period vs, yield curves obtained from previous U.S, shots, It should be
noted that the yields reported by JIF-7 and the AEC for REDWING have fluctuated
considerably and final values are not yet available on the last few shots.
-
3.
Discussion,
The only shot which gave acoustic yield estimates greatly
in error was LACROSSE = about +2,1 standard errors, This result may be due to
the fact that LACROSSE occurred during spring propagation conditions when
upper level winds are variable, All stations detecting the shot were in roughly
the same direction from the test site (west and northwest). The only station
at reasonable distance to the east of the test site was Oahu where the noise
level was too high to permit detection, GREENHOUSE results during sirilar
conditions showed that periods at stations west of the test were different from
those to the east. The average of all of the GREENHOUS® data gave reasonably
accurate yield estimates, but estimates would have been considerably in error
had detection been restricted to one direction,
The estimate for FLATH=AD
¢
is the only other value outside the one standard error range — about +1.2
standard error,
4.
Conclusions,
a. It is concluded that the errors in estirating yields from acoustic
periods are less than previously supposed for shots about 500 KT yield, Errors
greater than a factor of 2 will be rere, IVY, CASTLE AND REDWING data imply
that there is probably less than one chance in twenty that an error greater
than a factor of two will occur.
b.
One word of caution is necessary, however.
All of the shots of high
yield have occurred at the Pacific Proving Ground and it is conceivable, though
not likely, that shots at a different latitude might not fall as exactly on the
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