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RADIATION STANDARDS, INCLUDING FALLOUT
cesium 137, an isotope similar to natural body potassium. It concentrates in muscle and can therefore produce internal whole body
irradiation. It also emits a gammaray, therefore its accumulation on
the ground will provide whole body external radiation.
Another componentis that of the external radation from the shortlived fission products excluding iodine in this case which constitutesa
special topic. The short-lived isotopes you have all been familiar with
are zirconium niobium, ruthenium, cerium, barium, and lanthanum.
These are gamma emitters and produce whole body irradiation when
deposited on the ground. Carbon 14 is another componentof fallout,
carbon being an elementthatis the basis of all living matter, naturally
will accumulate in the body and deliver whole body irradiation.
We have also an internal emitter of special significance—iodine
131—a very short-lived isotope which has the peculiar property of con-
centrating almost entirely in a single organ of the body, that being
the thyroid gland. These, then, are the components of radiation exposure from fallout. It is my job before this panel to estimate the
population exposure from these various components as a result of
weapons tests through 1961. The population exposures are usually
estimated on the basis of the 70-year integral dose if we are dealing
with such effects as leukemia, bone cancer, life shortening. They are
usually integrated over 30 years if they are dealing with the genetic
aspect of the radiation problem, There have been a number of competent predictions of the radiation exposures from these various constituents. One just having been released by the Federal Radiation
Council. I can make no claims that my predictions are any moreto be
desired or any more accurate than predictions made by others. There
is an element of uncertainty in the prediction regardless of the person
whois makingit.
Let us then look at the contribution in terms of weaponstests to date
from each of these components, considering all weaponstests prior to
the moratorium in one case, and the contribution that might be anticipated from the Russian tests in 1961, keeping in mind that such predictions for the Russian tests must be predicted on two rather tenuous
assumptions:
One, that the Russians detonated the equivalent of 25 megatons of
fission energy release, something that I know will be denied by the
Russians.
The other assumption is that this material will fall ont in essentially the same way as did the material which they injected in the fall
of 1958. You have already heard Dr. Machta testify that this is not
being the case. Forthat reason anyprediction which is made with regard to the short-lived activities, especially, will probably be in error
on the high side because it seems that the Russian debris is not coming
down as fast or as concentrated as one would assume on the basis of
their 1958tests.
If we then consider these various parameters of fallout exposure,
taking first the short-lived fission products, this being an estimate
now, my own, based on Dr. Gustafson’s work we would predict that 57
millirads (70-year integral dose) would have been received as a maximum to the population from the short-lived activities of all past.
weaponstests prior to the moratorium. The Russiantests, had they
come down in the same pattern as anticipated, would be about 42, indicating that expected short-lived fission product exposure from the Rus-
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