TURNER
NUMBER OF SAMPLES
wn
|
806
Ww
=
a.
42
0
be0 5
an
a
=
Z
JU)
0
2,500
!
7,500
5,000
PC/G
a
2.7 3.1 3.6 3.9 4.3
LOG, PC/G
Pith
10,000
_
CI
15,000
Fig. 1—Estimated distribution of 174I on vegetation in Penoyer Valley
on July 6, 1962,
Because x is equal to 10*, 30 values of X;... Xg) were selected
at random from normal distributions (as defined in Table 2), and the
antilogarithms of these numbers defined the values of x, (with i = 1 to
30).
The simulation was programmedin the following form:
i-1l
A=F 2 E**ip.o% Tv,
rel
where E is equal to (14)!
jrl
and V, is equalto (14)!4. After four days
this expression (in expanded form) would be
A= FIE‘p, 10%: + E°p,10*:V, + E?D,10*8(V,V>)
+ ED,10*4(V,V2Vs) |
Thus the daily decline in ‘I on vegetation is simulated and day to day
variations in the rate of loss are permitted to occur by chance. Most
important, the initial amount per gram of food is permitted to vary.
An herbivore feeding at random in a fallout field will consume heavily
contaminated foliage on some days and lightly contaminated food on
others. The 30-day experience of a Single hypothetical consumer was
Simulated in the manner described. Only the cumulative totals of thyroid I at Dd, 10, 15, 20, 25, and 30 days were printed out. Through
repetition of this procedure, distributions representing
populations of consumers were built up by the computer.
synthetic