C.W. Mays
itroduction ~- 4
radionuclides, and the position is well summarised as
“our understanding of the situations prevailing in the
formation of air-burst debris is rudimentary in all
phases..."
Extreme fluct.ations have been found in
the relative proportions of radionuclides in a single
explosion, when many neasurements are made,
so that
inferences as to the icdine 131 from gross beta and
gamma levels might be seriously above ..«.. or below eee
the true values.
While these doubts remain,
there is
still no other way to estimate what the iodine 131 levels
were, when they were not directly measured.
As recently as April 1966, there was unexpected
venting from an underground test shot in Nevada.
By now,
the technique of monitoring for iodine 131 is well
established, and farmers in the area were instructed to
put their cattle onto dry feed.
Leakage of radioactive
debris from an underground explosion favors the more
volatile and less desirable preducts (they are
fractionated).
There is anothers problem,
statistical in nature.
The natural rate of incidence of many diseases is not
precisely lkmown.
Radiation nay very greatly increase
the rate, i.e. the number of cases per 100 thousand
population, but the number of extra cases may be small
if the exposed population is small.
The reliability of
conclusions must therefore depend on the size of the
effect and the number of cases.
It may be necessary
to examine a huge population in order to establish even
a moderate increase in the rate of occurrence of a
disease.
Here again, Dr. Mays'
suggestion for extending
the study to all children who were exposed to fallout
in Utah is well justified.
In addition,
be considered.
similar studies in Nevada might well
In such surveys,
it will probably be
necessary to attempt as many independent methods as
DOE ARCHIVES
3S