“SECRET”
might not, be believed by the observers.
It would require,
also, two medium yield shots whose yield and behavior
are fairly certain.
Even if the shots function
satisfactorily and the readings gave true evidence as
to relative activity, it is not certain that this would
be convincing to observers. They could always suspect,
or claim to suspect, that we had tampered with the
instrumentation or readings.
ec, To fire through the clouds of two comparable
yield shots (one "clean" and one conventional) a series
of rockets which would telemeter back gamma intensity
readings which, by comparison, would indicate relatively
that the activity in one cloud was far less than in the
other, This solution again requires two reliable shots
of comparable yield,
It requires extremely elaborate and
costly instrumentation.
It is capable of being assailed
(like the approach of b. above) as subject to tampering.
d. To allow the observers to witness one "clean" shot
of assured
tion (such
by limited
appears to
behavior - to determine by simple instrumentaas bhangmeter) the total yield and to determine
radiochemistry the fission yield. This
be the most convincing method of proving a
shot "clean".
It is relatively straight-forward (though
not simple) and would require the shortest attendance
at the site by the observers.
However, unless the shot
were doctored, it would reveal significant information
relative to our weapons design, This possibility is
discussed further below,
DISCUSSION
5.
If the fission yield is to be established by simple
radiochemistry,
it will be necessary to add to the shot a bulk
tracer, such as many tons of depleted uranium.
The weight of the
uranium, but not its isotopic content, would be made known to
the observers,
Aircraft samples would be taken and turned over to
technicians in a laboratory created for the purpose at
Site.
the Test
These technicians, knowing the amount of the tracer,
could
establish the fraction of the bomb they are analyzing and could
determine therefrom the total fission yield which had occurred.
Such an analysis should be capable of accomplishment in the period
of three to seven days after the shot.
Establishing the
laboratory facilities and controlling the observers would be a
complex problem,
though not insurmountable.