Range
1726-2001
3174-9078
87-101
160-458
From the above the minimum estimate of cancer risk would be given by a
risk coefficient of 87/10° person rem and the maximum by 458/10° person
rem.
Thus, these two risk coefficients were used to define a range of
estimated cancer deaths.
2.
Genetic Effects (from Page 1 & 2 BEIR-1)
a.
Based on specific defects 5 rem/30 year reproductive
generation would cause in the first generation 100-1800 cases of
dominant diseases and defects per year (3.6 million births/year)
or 5 times this amount at equilibrium.
The 1800 cases represent
an increase of 0.05% incidences per year first generation and 0.25%
at equilibrium.
In addition there would be a few chromosomal defects
and recessive diseases and a few congenial defects due to a single
gene defect and chromosome aberrations.
The total incidence at equilibrium is 1100 to 27,000/year.
These
at equilibrium, the maximum would be 0.75% or 0.15% in the first
generation.
These are equivalent to 0.15% per rem at equilibrium and 0.03%/rem
in the first generation.
b.
Based on overall il] health.
Overall il] health:
5% - 50%
of i]1 health is proportional to the mutation rate using 20% and
doubling dose of 20 rem, 5 rem per generation would eventually lead
to a 5% increase in il] health.
Thus the rate of overall i11 health is 1%/rem at equilibrium or
0.2%/rem in first generation.
For estimating the potential genetic derived health defects in the
Bikini population it was decided to use a risk coefficient of 0.2%
per rem in the first generation recognizing that it was probably
very conservative.