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Although the probability of detonation in a specific area is
greater the nearer the area is to the launch peint (excluding the predicted
impact area, which will be considered separately), this distribution is
ignored. It is considered that. the estimates are sufficiently broad to
cover the entire area, and thatthe probabilities in any parts of the areas
do not exceed the figures quoted,
.
The conditions which can lead to a detonation at impact in this
situation are the same as those in situation 5 forthe VHA!
shot except for
the probability of the situation occurring and the probability that the
ground control equipment will successfully detect the situation and prevent
a detonation by fuel cutoff.
7.
ALL missile functions occur normally, but both the azimuth and
range guidance functions are erratic.
In this situation the missile can travel on any trajectory within
the limits of the control system, assuming normal thrust and cutoff, and
will impact anywhere within a radius of 180m for the UHA shot and 100kn
for the VHA! shot.
:
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;
This situation is the same as the previous one with the addition
of failure of the azimuth guidance, and the increased likelihood that ground
control will be able to interrupt the arming sequence by effecting early
cutoff,
8,
There is a possibility that a detonation can occur outside the region
described in situation 7 above, within a radius of the order of 175 nautical
miles from the launch point (the maximum range permitted by the fuel load),
but this requires additional component failures and is several orders of
magnitude less likely to occur.
9,
All missile functions are normal and warhead arms but fails to fire.
This situation may result in a detonation in the predicted impact
area, and is similar to several of the previous situations but without any
failure of missile or arming components,