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even if it does not prevent the actual outbreak of hostilities,
It is, for
reasons which will presently be indicated, highly unlikely that such a situation
will occur,
But even if it did occur, the shadow of the atomic bomb would so
govern the strategic and tactical dispositions of either side as to create a
wholly novel form of war,
The kind of
spatial concentrations of force by which
in the past great decisions have been achieved would be considered too risky.
The whole economy of war would be affected, for even if the governments were
willing to assume responsibility for keeping the urbanpopulations in their
homes, the spontaneous exodus of those populations from the cities might reach
such proportions as to make it difficult to service the machines of war,. The
conclusion is inescapable that war will be vastly different because of the atomic
bomb whether or not the bomb is actually used.
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But let us now consider the degree of probability snverent in each of the
three main situations which might follow from a a, prevent a major war.
These three situations may be listed as follows:
(a) a war fought without atomic bombs or other forms of radioactive
energy;
(b) a war in which atomic bombs were introduced only considerably after
the outbreak of hostilities;
(c) a war in which atomic bombs were used at or near the very outset of
hostilities,
We are assuming that this hypothetical conflict occurs at a time when each of the
opposing sides possesses at least the "know-how" of bomb production, a situation
Which, as argued in the previous chapter, approximates the realities to be
expected not more than five to ten years hence,
Under such conditions the situation described under (a) above could obtain
only as a result of a mutual fear of retaliation, perhaps supported by inter~
national instruments outlaving the bomb as a weapon of war,
It would not be