eas
ERs
a
TAELE 6,1 Fallout and Evacuation Tines
Trprennin seaeny
Island
Estirated InitiLal
Fallout
,
=
PTs
7.
Se
=~
ST
Ronarik
:
ET
Lt
oo et
Ww ee
Ties
pel
(hours }
—
7
i
hourg)
\
H + 6,8
.
hvacuation Tire
|
eT. TST
TT to
b.~ — eR
.
_-—
=.
~
TIT
LT
ra
|
4+ 29.5 (6 men)
d+
38
(20 men
Nongelap
deh
{
|
H+ £0 (15 people)
H+ 51 (43 ;eople)
ALi Livinae
H+ hy
|
d+ 53
1
Utirik
22)
H+ 22
|
H+ 55 to Ho + 73
ES@LMATSS Of FALLOUT LURATICt
-
The rato of increase of radtation intensity, the time at which it
reached to
Guraticn of
The data of
trapolation
increase of
craximun level dus to decrease of failout, and the total
the fallout can cnly be estimated on cireoas tantlel grounds.
Tatle 2.1 for honverik are not sufficient to warrant an exover two orders of mamttuce. Lt is unlikely that the
intensity was sinuply Linear either cn koneerik or any of
the other islands,
Put, if the rate of increase is assumed constant
and extrapolated to a point for which subsequent decay alone would re“ucs the dosa rate t the values found at later tines, a Pullout line
of 16 hours on Rongerik, for exanple, is found to be a necessary consequence (Curve a,
Figure "6, 1). That is to say, 16 hours would have
elapsed at vac’ a constant fallout douse rate increase before the tine
of maxtmin dose rate on the island would have occurred = the tine at
which the fallcut was increasing the radioactivity level at the sane
rate that radioactive decay was reducin; it. For such a constant
build up, this equality would have occurred only for an instant, (Foint
A), after which the fallout would have suddenly ceased,
The acthal fallout must, of course, have had a variable rate of
increase and decrease, reaching a maximum and cradually decreasine to
the rate governed by decay alone, However, using the initial rate of
increase and drawing a more gradal maximun would place the cessation
~
of the fallout at an even Later tine (Curve b, Boint Aj), Since the
vistble fallout is believed to have ceased sometime after midnisht on
1 March or at about H +18 hours (Point A 3)5 an increase in the rate
of increase after a short time was almostosartainly the case (Curves
c, d, and 6), But the steepness of this rata of increase, the sharp
noss of the maximum peint and the gradualnoss of the fallout dimimition
are unknown, so that there 13 no direct evidence to show whether Curve
cor Curva 8, for instance, is closer to representing the event,
There are, however, {adirect incicetiens, Moniter data from pre-
vwisus muclear events have indicated that a radioactive cloud is not
a
e
Soettinit wette