ce.
From a comparison of unweighted hodographs, it appears that a
significantly greater number of acceptable (high-yield) shooting
days occur eat Teongi than at Eniwetok/Bikini, As can be seen
from Figure 9, this results primrily from the geography of the
area rather than from any marked climtological differences.
At Taongi, and assuming fallout on the test site can be accepted,
the normal wind structure produces east-west fallout patterns
which do not interfere with populated areas; at Enivetok/Bkini
doe?
Comparative danger areas
greater than at Bikini.
A study of the 45 cases submitted in his report
indicates that his estimated number of good days of 32 may be high by
9 or 10 because this many of the 32 "good" days are quite marginal and
would probably not be acceptable to those responsible for firing. He
considered a day as good if the fallout axis missed all of the inhabited
Mershelis and Wake. There are still about three times as many good days .
at Taongi as at Bikini, however."
Taking the leest optimistic viewpoint, as just expressed, and based on 22
good shooting days wersus 7 for Bikini out of the total of 45, the probability
of being able to fire the first shot at Taongi or Bikini on any day during
the period analysed is respectively 50% and 15%.
This merely states that
whatever the average weather deley at Bikini is, the same average is 1/3 as
‘
ae
large at Taongi.
ds bbe
“The number of good weather days at Taongi for shots of the Hardtack
class will, as indicated in Commander Rex's report, be substantially
oh ce
Dr. Vay Shelton has stated:
aoa Bhiaki, hahbdiaenabor Be BT as
ae
are shown in Figure 9 for the two locations."
In the above typical schedules, we have based the shot intervals between large
shots at Bikini on a minimus of four days technical preparedness and six dsys
average weather delay. At Taongi, ve have based the shot intervals on five
days technical preparedness and tvo dsys average veather delay. The 3:1 ratio
wee
similar patterns cannot be accepted.
is a conservetive figure tasca oa Tv. Shelvon’s interpretation of the accuracy
of the determinations in the JIF 7 report and it is pertinent to mention thet
Com=ander Rex believes the interpolated hodograph data to be accurate to only
20% in vind velocities ami 20° in direction.
There is general agreement between the JIF 7 Meteorological Center end UCRL in
considering Taongi as a test site. The problem of checking the validity of
the above data should also be considered. Establishment of weather observation capability early in the Teoenst crea to record data as long as possible
prior to Operation Hardtack is deemed advisable. Such data would be valuable
not only as a checlt on the interpolated data accuracy but would lend con-
on the weather in such locations can likely be obtained from destroyers.
It
is not obvious that weather ships whose sole mission is weather observation
are necessary for this purposes.
COPIED/DO
LANL RC - .
ade
ay
Weather informtion locally in the Taongi area can be well covered from the
diagnostics ship. It is also deemed necessary to observe the weather further
out from Taongi, probably from ships to the northwest and east. late checks
Ot
siderable help toward more accurate Taongi forecasts.