Projected lifetime cancer risks @ C. E. LAnp ETAL.
Table 1. Census-based total Marshall Islands population by sex
and census year (RMI 1987).
Census year
203
than Majuro, 1.07 for mid-latitude atolls other than
Kwajalein, and 1.05 for Rongelap and Utrik.
The census reports for 1958 and 1973, but not 1967,
1935
1958
1967
1973
Males
5,480
7,175
9,658
12,335
Females
4,966
6,753
9,267
11,800
gavedistributions for the entire MI population by sex and
Sex
age interval, as shown in Table 2 (RMI 2003, Table 2.7).
Using what might be termed a “global enumeration
algorithm,” we applied the 1958 sex-specific age distributions to all atolls for 1948-1957, and interpolated
12,000 -
#
Female (projected)
@
Female (data)
—— Male (projected)
a
Male (data)
al
Z
/
Population Size
10,000 }-
linearly between the 1958 and 1973 distributions for
1959-1970. Two exceptions were 82 members of the
Rongelap community who received very high radiation
doses from exposure to fallout from Castle Bravo on |
March 1954, while on Rongelap (64) or Ailinginae (18),
and 157 membersof the Utrik community who received
10-fold lower, but still substantial, doses while exposed
8,000
on Utrik to fallout from the same event. Both groups
were enumerated in historical documents (see for exam-
6,000 -
4,000
1930
+»
+
+
1
2
i
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
Calendar Year
Fig. 1. Fitted Bezier cubic splines expressing yearly interpolated,
sex-specific population numbers for the entire Marshall Islands
population, based on census results for 1935, 1958, 1967, and
1973.
ple, BNL 1975) by age and sex when they were evacuated several days later. For community members who
were not present at the time of Castle Bravo, numbers of
people andtheir distribution by year, age, and sex were
estimated using the above-mentioned global enumeration
algorithm.
Radiation dose
Estimation of tissue-specific radiation absorbed
doses to bone marrow, thyroid gland, stomach, colon,
and other organs andtissues from fallout-related internal
8000
(ingested) and external radioactive sources is discussed
in the companion papers (Bouville et al. 2010; Simon et
al. 2010b). External doses were assumedto be essentially
—?;— Majuro
—4— Other southernatolls
—#— Kwajalein
8
T
5
Population Size
6000 |-
—— Other mid-latitude atolls
—O— Rongelap and Utrik
Table 2. Distribution of Marshall Islands population by age and sex
in 1958 and 1973: numberof persons and percent (%) (RMI 2003).
Age
group (y)
2000 -
0
1945
<1
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
Calender Year
Fig. 2. Estimated population sizes over time for Majuro, 13 other
southern atolls, Kwajalein, 6 other mid-latitude atolls, and the
Rongelap and Utrik communities including membersnotpresentat
the time of the Castle Bravo test on 1 March 1954.
clearly indicates a substantial trend over time of migration to the two population centers from nearby as well as
remote atolls. The populations of Kwajalein and Majuro
increased over 1948-1970 by factors of 4 and 2.5,
respectively, compared to 1.2 for southern atolls other
1-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44.
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Total
1958
male
1958
female
1973
male
1973
female
268 (3.8)
246 (3.7)
485 .23° (3.9%)
409.19* (3.5*)
7,080 (100)
6,681 (100)
12,305 (100)
11,784 (100)
1,078 (15.2) 1,073 (16.1) 1,951.77* (15.9%) 1,784.81" (15.2°)
1,162 (16.4) 953 (14.3)
2,023 (16.4)
1,876 (15.9)
782 (11.1) 703 (10.5)
‘1,550 (12.6)
1,538 (13.1)
452 (6.4)
476 (7.1)
1,379 (11.2)
1,385 (11.8)
411 (5.8)
426 (6.4)
1,070 (8.7)
975 (8.3)
462 (6.5)
443 (6.6)
TAl (6.0)
770 (6.5)
421 (6.0)
—-390 (5.8)
489 (4.0)
446 (3.8)
386 (5.5)
387 (5.8)
429 (3.5)
432 (3.7)
294.(4.2)
—-291 (4.4)
427 (3.5)
362 (3.1)
317(4.5)
274 (4.1)
358 (2.9)
369 (3.1)
201 (2.8)
231 (3.5)
357 (2.9)
359 (3.1)
201 (2.8)
220 (3.3)
328 (2.7)
312 (2.7)
231(3.3)
‘178 (2.7)
263 (2.1)
249 (2.1)
151 (2.1)
‘112 (1.7)
159 (1.3)
189 (1.6)
120(1.7)
‘102. (1.5)
113 (0.9)
139 (1.2)
50(0.7)
53(0.8)
63.64°(0.5)
——-56.91* (0.5)
50(0.7)
57(0.9)
—-63.64° (0.5)
«6 1.21° (05°)
43(0.6)
66(1.0)
—54.73°(0.4*)
70.88" (0.6")
“1973 age detail apportioned according to 1958 detail.