RMI Nuclear Justice Documents

210 Health Physics atolls and for the entire Marshallese population. The realizations used for each of the risk calculations were obtained by Median Latin Hypercube sampling (Iman and Shortencarier 1984). For a given sample size, this method provides more precise estimates of the mean, median, and 90% uncertainty limits than are obtainable through simple random sampling. RESULTS Cancerrisk estimates are based on 12,175 MI residents projected to have been born before 1948 and another 12,608 projected to have been born in the years 1948 through 1970, giving a total exposed population of 24,783. Projected lifetime numbers of baseline and radiation-related cancers are shown in Table 4 by organsite, population, and calendar August 2010, Volume 99, Number 2 time period. Reflecting the general decreasing trend in exposure levels from the northern atolls of Aulinginae, Rongelap, and Utrik to more southern latitudes, the atolls of Ailuk, Kwajalein, Likiep, Mejit, Wotho, Wotje, and Ujelang (the relocated Enewetak population) were grouped together in Table 4 as the “mid-latitude” group, while the atolls of Ailinglaplap, Arno, Aur, Ebon, Jaluit, Kili (the relocated Bikini population), Lae, Lib, Majuro, Maloelap, Mili, Namorik, Namu, and Ujae constitute the “southern latitude” group. The lifetime projection for baseline cancers of all sites, excepting non-melanoma skin cancer whichis not covered by the SEERregistries, totals 10,600 or a little over 40% of the exposed population. The projected numberof radiation-related cancers is 170, or 1.6% of the projected baseline with 90% uncertainty range 0.4% to Table 4. Projected numbers of baseline cancers and excess (radiation-related) cancers by population group, cancer type, and time period (uncertainty distributions for excess cancers represented by their means and their 5" and 95" percentiles). Projected lifetime cancers from 1948 Population group and cancer type Projected cancers 1948-2008 Excess Baseline Mean 5% Projected cancers from 2009 Excess 95% Baseline Mean 5% Excess 95% Rongelap Island and Ailinginae exposed community Leukemia 044 16 0.3 4.3 0.27 13 0.20 3.7 Thyroid 0.60 12 4.2 21 0.48 95 2.8 18 Stomach 1.8 1.7 0.23 4.9 1.0 0.79 0.10 2.5 Colon 3.1 3.4. 17 11 1.7 25 0.77 5.1 Other solid 28 21 7.0 33 18 16 5.2 27 Rounded total 34 Al 13 74 21 30 9.0 37 Utrik community Leukemia 1.4 0.34 0.062 1.2 0.77 0.28 0.044 1.0 Thyroid 1.8 44 085 11 1.3 3.0 0.56 8.2 Stomach 5.8 0.30 0.038 0.99 2.8 0.14 0.018 0.39 Colon 9.7 1.0 0.32 2.3 4.6 0.42 0.13 0.93 Other solid 91 65 14 14 49 3.6 0.89 8.7 Rounded total 110 12 2.6 30 58 74 1.6 19 Kwajalein and other mid-latitude atolls* Leukemia 35 3.1 0.59 8.8 14 25 O41 7.8 Thyroid 46 15 3.0 38 27 10 2.0 26 Stomach 140 2.8 0.36 8.5 44 13 0.16 4.1 Colon 229 3.30 17 12 69 2.3. 0.77 4.8 Other solid 2,190 31 74 66 790 18 AT 38 Rounded total 2,600 37 13 130 940 35 8.1 80 Majuro and other southern latitude atolls,” including Rongelap control population Leukemia 103 2.3 0.43 6.5 44 19 0.30 5.8 Thyroid 138 20 3.5 52 84 13 2.3 34 Stomach 420 2.0 0.29 5.7 140 0.89 0.13 2.6 Colon 680 4.8 1.6 9.8 220 2.0 0.68 4.5 Other solid 6,500 31 6.9 68 2,500 17 4.6 35 Rounded total 7,800 61 13 140 3,000 34 8.0 82 Entire Marshall Islands population exposed between 1948 and 1970 Leukemia 140 74 1.3 20 59 6.0 0.94 17 Thyroid 190 50 12 120 113 35 7.9 85 Stomach 570 6.7 0.94 20 190 3.1 0.43 9.4 Colon 930 16 5.3 34 300 7.2 24 15 Other solid 8,800 9024 181 3,400 54 16 110 Rounded total 10,600 170 44 380 4,000 105 28 236 Baseline Mean 5% 95% 0.17. 0.30 0.12 2.3 0.80 0.87 14 29 10 49 13 11 0.072 0.59 1.2 3.6 0.12 2.7 0.90 5.9 2.2 7.9 45 21 0.63 0.50 3.0 5.1 42 51 0.016 0.13 0.27 3.3 0.020 0.61 0.16 1.3 046 6.8 0.93 12 0.062 14 0.16 058 29 5.1 21 19 96 160 1,400 1,700 0.62 5.0 15 3.0 13 23 015 10 0.20 09 2.8 5.1 1.2 12 4.3 6.3 28 52 59 54 280 460 0.45 6.7 11 2.8 0.13 12 016 0.92 0.85 18 3.2 53.7 4,000 15 4,800 26 81 74 380 630 5,400 =©6,600 14 15 3.6 93 36 65 2.8 5.2. 33 60 037 2.6 3.9 36 O51 11 29 19 8.6 71 14 140 * Ailuk, Kwajalein, Likiep, Meijit, Ujelang (population relocated from Enewetak), Wotho, and Wotje. 6 Ailinglaplap, Arno, Aur, Ebon, Jaluit, Kili (population relocated from Bikini), Lae, Lib, Majuro, Maleolap, Mili, Namorik, Namu, and Ujae.