..
summing.
original
This gave 8949 rads for the total population
including the
The total dose received by the original 550, assuming
550.
that all live for the 30 years, is
550 (, - e-At
P’=~
) = 11,902 rads
For those born after the return, the population would be the difference
between the total population in 30 years, the number of deaths and the
original
Thus, the per capita dose for this group
550 people or 1134.
is 8949/1134
11,902/550
= 7.9 rads.
= 22 rads.
For the original 550, the per capita dose is
The ratio of these two to give an estimate of the
fraction of the full 30 year dose received by the children is 0.36.
The assumption
simplicity
of no deaths in the original 550 returning was made for
and the lack of good death rate data.
We also compared the age characteristics
IV-3 and the U.S. population in 1970.
attached
curve.
are distorted
of the Marshallese
This comparison
from Table
is given in the
The slopes are similar above age 35 but the magnitudes
by the high birth rate in the Marshall
Islands.
However,
in terms of the relative risk the similar slopes suggest that if the
natural cancer rates in the two populations are similar, the relative
risk for people above 35 in both populations would be similar because
most of the cancer occurs at ages from about 40 and above.
magnitude
However, the
of the relative risk in the U.S. used for the Marshallese will
be high by a factor of somewhere around 2-3 because of the distortion
caused by the very high proportion of young people who have a relatively
low-natural
cancer incidence.
Using the preceding calculations for a population of 550, calculations
were made for other population sizes.
For a population of 550 (from
preceding):
Deaths in 30 years
=
Births in 30 years
= 1277=
For a population
164s
160
1300
of 140 (the number that returned to Bikini):