. .
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II.
the number of births, deaths and the magnitude of the Bikini
To estimate
population
POPULATION ESTIMATES
after 30 years
Islands Five Year Health Plan prepared by the Trust Territories’
the Marshall
Department
information was used from the final draft of
of Health Serv: ces’ Office of Health Planning and the Resources
Department.
indicates
The document is undated, but the presence of data from 1976
that it must have been prepared in the
when we received it.
It was noted that there are apparent inconsistencies
among several of the different tables.
data
period of 1977 to 1979
For example, Table III-1
gives
for the Marshall Islands for the period 1955-1975 and Table III-5
gives data for the infant mortality rate for 1976.
In Table 111-1, the
infant death rate per 1000 births for 1970 through 1975 is given as
28.3, 33.6, 25.4, 46.4, 21.l:and 37.0.’ However, Table III-5 indicates
the infant mortality rate to be only 17.04.
III-1
We used the data of Table
in the following estimates; because it is more complete and it
provides a self-consistent
crepancies,
set of data.
However,
the results can only be considered
in view of the dis-
as approximations.
probably makes little real difference in view of the uncertainties
the risk coefficients
that were used.
This
in
There is also a bias built into
the data because of the inclusion of Ebye and Majuro in the overall
Marshall
Island rates.
(particularly
This arises from the different death rates
infants) at these two locations.
In many respects the
population
of Ebye and Majuro are quite dissimilar
population
because they have the advantages
technical
from the Bikini
and disadvantages of a more
environment.
For the estimates the last 5 or 6 year average of the data were used
because they are probably the most representative
of current conditions.
From this, the following were obtained:
J.
Rate of increase of the population
2.
Infant
3.
Overall death rate is 0.54% per year.
4.
Birth rate is 4.2% per year.
death
rate
is about
has been about
3.2% per birth.
3.8%/year.