(5)

The worst years scem to be 13953 an? i957.

“t)

Many Grah chis.i or have received thyrcid Joses of several reds.

(ad)

The St.

(e)

These ccse estivates need to be improved.

Gearge exposures were sizable.

data shouid be releascd; air beta concentrations

Tor 1951,

i952,

In particular,

field gamma

shculd be nace available

1353 and 1955; and if not contrary to the interests of

national security, xiieten yields for the July 1962 tests are needed.
Perhaps a future “im ident’ will provide the needed calibration check!
PREDICTED TH.CID CANCERS
I realize that any attempt to predict an increase in cancer due to low
doses of radiation is subject to great inaccuracy and criticism.

This is

especially true when the dose estimates are so very approximate.

There

fore, it sheuld be understood that the following estimates were made pri-

marily to indicate whether or not an effort to search for increased
thyroid cancers would be justified.
Archer anc 5 impson 1) have tabulated 10 thyroid cancers in 2253

children x-irradiated as infants for “an enlarged thymus" with an average
dose of 225 rads, and an average follow-up time of 14.5 years.
we have no
.

i

at later

:

At present

tion en how many additional thyroid cancers will develop
na

m

|

38.5 years.

They have calculated that 0.05

dencere should have been expected normally in this

iyperiod. Assuming a linear relation between
dose and incidence’, there should be l case per 50,000 read-children.
el

me

* To my satisfaction this relation has neither been proved or disproved
adaquately for thyroid cancer.

Select target paragraph3