from any particular detonation, taking into account weather conditions (particularly wind speeds and directions at all altitudes)
forecast for shot time.

In past test operations the Test Manager's decision to shoot or
postpone a test has been based on similar computations worked out by
the Nevada Test Organization's Fallout Prediction Unit.

But since

'

human computation is necessarily somewhat slower than that performed
by the electronic devices, the time lag has required utilization of
weather forecasts made earlier before scheduled shot time, This sometimes resulted in missed opportunities to fire a test when last-minute
improvements in the weather outlook did not permit fallout computation in time to confirm public safety before shot time.
One of the computers produces almost instantaneous solutions,
giving the Test Manager and his Advisory Panel the benefit of revised fallout predictions right up to shot time. This makes it
possible to take advantage of improving weather, and would also help
assure cancellation of a shot if a weather change for the worse was
indicated in the immediate pre-shot weather forecast.
Both computers are used in addition to continuing human computation by personnel of the Fallout Prediction Unit. The human computa-

tion, although slower, serves to check the accuracy of the electronic
computations.

Each of the computers is about.the size of a large console-type

home television set, and readily portable. One unit, developed by the
National Bureau of Standards, actually contains a display device closely
resembling a TV screen.

This picture screen, which is lined similar

to graph paper, provides a visual, quickly—-interpreted pattern of
fallout areas and their intensity. A map transparency of the Test

Site area can be superimposed on the screen in order to pin-point the
precise location of predicted fallout.
The other computer, developed by AEC Sandia Laboratory, differs
from the NBS model largely in the fact that it provides results in the

form of a graph or chart.

The Sandia-developed computer can be operated by technicians with

little knowledge of higher mathematics.

mathematical experience at all.

The NBS machine requires no

Data fed into the computers includes

speed and direction of winds at various heights, size and shape of the
atomic cloud, and charActeristics of the various radioactive elements
in the atomic cloud.
12.

MILITARY PARTICIPATION

Personnel and equipment of the Army, Navy, Air Force and Marine
Corps are participating extensively in Operation Plumbbob,
,

Of primary importance to the Department of Defense and the Armed
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