CHAPTER 6 - FEASIBILITY OF DEVELOPING FALLOUTPREDICTION TECHNIQUES FOR OPERATIONAL APPLICATION 1. The Subcommittee states that "civil defense can use existing prediction systems only in planning and not operationally..." (underlining added). 2. It is important to understand that the prediction systems referred to in the report are for predicting what the dose rates (R/hr) or total doses will be at a particular time and at a particular place. "Prediction" as used here does not refer to estimating “time of arrival" of fallout (if it arrives) since such estimates would depend primarily on wind speeds which could be determined with considerable reliability. 3. Also, it is important to understand what is meant by “prediction techniques for operational application."' Specifically, this term is used to describe the prediction after an enemy weapon actually has of existing prediction systems does not refer to civil defense operations such as pre-attack evacuation of cities, or calculations of risks based on studies of hypothetical attacks, or the like. dea 2h been detonated of fallout radiation dose rates at various times and at various locations. Thus, the Subcommittee'’s concern about use 4, Even if an operational prediction scheme based on an extrapolation technique is developed, careful examination of the types of protective actions that might be taken based on the predictions is needed, This should include a careful analysis of the probable benefits in terms of the net expected lives saved or lost, and doses reduced or increased. 5. In any case, a policy which calls for the movement of people out of a predicted path of fallout, especially if they have been crowded into some NFSS-identified facility or other protected location, seems questionable. This is due to at least four factors: (1) inherent uncertainties of the predictions, as discussed above; (2) uncertainties about dependable communications; (3) the inherent difficulties of moving large numbers of people under unrehearsed and highly stressful conditions in a short period of time; and (4) moving them in a direction and for a distance not definitely known until the signal from the detection system has been received. II-12