Hd tH a) |i tel Ga 1958 tests in the Pacific, especially since correspondents have noted specific tests about every other year. Any announcement on Taongi would have to be coordinated with the notification to the Security Council. 9, The length of the test operation, based on a 31 shot program has been estimated at 3 months. This assumes fhe dual atoll concept and implementation of the full dual shot capability, with the laboratories centering their activities on separate atolls. However, the 3 month estimate does not include the use of Taongi. If Taongi is used it would almost certainly shorten the operation, possibly by as much as 3 weeks. If the number of shots were decreased tO e5 there might be a time saving of 1 to 2 weeks, but this estimate depends on the specific shots which are eliminated, 10. HARDTACK would start in May of 1958 and extend into FY 1959. However, because most costs must accrue well before the firings, we estimate some 80% of the full HARDTACK costs will acerue in FY 1958. a. | The best rough estimates we can make at present would indicate that a 31 shot program using Bikini and Eniwetok only would cost approximately $48 million, of which approximately $40 million would be required in . FY 1958. Using Taongi as well would add some $6.1 million, largely in FY 1958. This would be partially offset by a decrease in cost of approximately pe million in FY 1959 due to the shorter operation. . b. Against this there is budgeted for FY 1958 only $34.7 million. c, A twenty-seven shot program (in lieu of 31), including the use of Taongi, is estimated to cost some $52.7 million of which $44.7 million would accrue in PY 1958. ll. DMA has reviewed the list of planned shots as given in detail in Appendix "B" and believes that a program of approximately 27 shots could be adopted now for planning purposes without oA; = ey -~